The German Chancellor is in Kyiv with Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi. Expectations are high – and the history of the Ukraine trip is long.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz on his arrival in Ukraine on Thursday
Andriy Melnyk, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, is known for his sharp tongue. When the news broke that Chancellor Olaf Scholz would travel to Kyiv with French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Melnyk posted on Twitter a photo of five tanks and wrote to the German government: “Why are you refusing the Ukrainian army these Marder armored personnel carriers, which Rheinmetall can deliver immediately, while Ukraine is bleeding dry in Donbass before your eyes?”
A short time later, Melnyk added: “The Ukrainians expect that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will announce a new aid package for German armaments during his visit to Kyiv, which should definitely include Leopard 1 main battle tanks and Marder armored personnel carriers,” said the Ambassador of the German Press Agency.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj demands a decision from Scholz
In total, Ukraine needs 1,000 heavy artillery pieces (howitzers), 300 multiple rocket launchers, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles and 1,000 drones, sources in Kyiv say. “We need Chancellor Scholz to ensure that Germany supports Ukraine. He and his government have to make a decision,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a ZDF interview. Since the Russian invasion in February, there have been a good 2,600 Ukrainian cities hit by enemy missiles. “These are lives that could have been saved, tragedies that could have been prevented – if Ukraine had been heard.”
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Olaf Scholz: “We will all arms deliver.”
Not just because of a photo to Kyiv
The expectations of the visit of the three heads of government to Ukraine, which has not yet been confirmed by the German side, are high. Probably also because the Chancellor took so long with his trip. Olaf Scholz has had an invitation to Kyiv for a long time. At first, however, he didn't notice it. Reason: In April, the Ukrainian government had uninvited Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier because of allegedly being too close to the Kremlin.
Steinmeier wanted to visit Kyiv, but wasn't allowed; Scholz was allowed, but didn't want to: the affront seemed too big for him. Even in this situation, the Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk poured fuel on the fire: He called Scholz an “offended liverwurst”. Finally, Steinmeier and Selenskyj had a clarifying conversation. But even after that Scholz hesitated. “I will not join a group of people who do something for a short in and out with a photo shoot,” said the Chancellor in mid-May.
No heavy weapons arrived from Germany yet
At the time, CDU opposition leader Friedrich Merz had already visited Kyiv. At the beginning of May, he was succeeded as the first cabinet member by Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. By then, however, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had already made a sensational appearance in Kyiv. He is remembered with the promise: “We will increase our military and economic support and bring together a global alliance to end this tragedy.”
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj invited the Federal Chancellor weeks ago
The contrast to Olaf Scholz became more and more obvious. The British, Americans and Eastern Europeans supplied extensive military equipment early on. Instead, Scholz warned of a third world war. He only wanted to send heavy weapons when the pressure, especially from Washington, became too great. In addition to tanks and howitzers, the chancellor recently promised the Iris-T air defense system and four multiple rocket launchers. So far, however, only light weapons and ammunition have arrived in the Ukraine.
There is an “omission” to be corrected
“Now words must be followed by deeds,” Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW. “Ideally, Scholz should have visited Kyiv with the French President after Emmanuel Macron was re-elected. That would have been a strong signal of solidarity and support. But better late than never.” Now the chancellor must “correct an oversight”, also with regard to the promised rocket launchers and modern anti-aircraft systems.
At a meeting in Vilnius last week with the heads of state and government of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Olaf Scholz felt how critically the speeches and, above all, (non-)actions are viewed by Olaf Scholz in Eastern Europe. The former Soviet republics fear they could become the next victims of Russian aggression should Putin succeed in Ukraine.
Do you want Ukraine to win the war or just not lose?
Scholz repeatedly used the formula “Russia must not win this war”. He avoids saying that Ukraine must win this war. Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins said, apparently alluding to this: “Our goal is clear: Russia must lose this war and Ukraine must win it.”
Destroyed Russian tank, on display in Kyiv
On the subject of arms deliveries, the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had already complained during a visit to Berlin at the end of April: “We are 65- times smaller than Germany. And we've provided six times more military aid than Germany.”
Duda: Hitler shouldn't save his face either
Many Eastern Europeans are very critical of the joint phone calls between Scholz and French President Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin – without other partners being involved. Macron had also repeatedly warned that Russia should not be humiliated and that Putin should be given a face-saving way out of the war. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda dryly remarked in Scholz's presence “that it is very complicated to negotiate with a dictator”.
Poland's President Andrzej Duda went even further. On June 9, he wrote in the “Bild” newspaper about the talks with Putin: “They only legitimize a person who is responsible for crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine.” Duda drew parallels to the time of National Socialism: “Did anyone talk to Adolf Hitler like that during the Second World War? Did someone say that Adolf Hitler had to be able to save face? Everyone knew: you have to defeat him.”
That Fate of Ukraine
There is something else that the Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe are missing from Scholz: the clear commitment to a Ukrainian EU perspective. The importance of such a commitment goes beyond the prospect of later membership, the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” commented at the beginning of June: “The refusal to give Kyiv security guarantees for the time after the war, for example through a prospect of EU membership”, seem like “appeasement”.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz traveled to Kyiv at the beginning of May
“Macron and Scholz act as if the fate of Ukraine is of secondary importance to them. The impression may be wrong, but the perception is also a reality. This is especially true in war, where morale can make all the difference. On this level, Berlin are doing well and Paris to involuntary helpers of the Kremlin,” judges the NZZ.
Difficult farewell to pacifism
The Anglo-Saxon media, on the other hand, have recently been more Scholz-friendly. “Against the background of its history and its pacifist political history, Germany is helping Ukraine more than many expected,” wrote the British “Economist”. In the “New York Times” Thomas Friedman marveled at how Germany “did practically overnight its almost 80-year reluctance to conflict”, massively increased its defense spending and is planning to supply arms to Ukraine.
Henning Hoff from the German Society for Foreign Relations draws a mixed balance: “In the past three months, more has happened in German security and defense policy than in three decades, supported by clear majorities in the population.” From the point of view of the allies, however, the Federal Republic only arrives in the present. “But more is expected of Germany: namely, to take on management responsibility much more clearly than before.”
Together with France and Italy? There are high expectations associated with the trip to Kyiv by Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi. It remains to be seen whether they will be fulfilled.
Olaf Scholz had once again rejected the accusation that he was hesitant before leaving. Training for the Ukrainian armed forces is necessary for the sometimes very modern and complicated weapon systems, Scholz replied to the allegations made by the Ukrainian ambassador and the president. “It's about really heavy equipment. You have to be able to use it, you have to be trained for it, that's currently happening in the Federal Republic of Germany.” All promised weapons would be delivered, he stressed.
This article was first published on June 14, 2022 and last updated on June 16.