It has been 10 years since we were all at Leidseplein to make a memorial wall, which was filled with texts by passers-by. “Jobs will go down in history as a visionary and a creative genius,” we wrote in his obituary. “Someone who single-handedly revolutionized multiple industries, such as the music industry.” Especially early in his career, Jobs scattered predictions about the future, while later statements mostly contained life lessons. To what extent are Jobs’ visions of the future come true?
Apple also commemorates Steve Jobs The Apple.com homepage is also dedicated to Steve Jobs today. Apple shows a slideshow of photos, some of which you can see in this article. There is also a special message from the Jobs family.
“People with passion can change the world for the better. ”— SJ. Hard to believe it's been 10 years. Celebrating you today and always. pic.twitter.com/x2IUnlO7ta
— Tim Cook (@tim_cook) October 5, 2021
Two national newspapers asked us how Apple has changed without Steve Jobs. The answer to that is actually quite simple: as a former COO, Tim Cook is someone who has complete control over production, logistics and other operational matters and who achieves clear financial results with it, but there is hardly any vision for the future. When Cook talks about the future, it's always about Augmented Reality. Cook may be right and it will be the biggest tech revolution we've ever seen, but for many people it's hard to imagine what we're going to do with it.
#1 Computer in a book< br>In that regard, Steve Jobs' predictions are much clearer. He wanted to put a computer in a book in 1983, even though he knew the technology wasn't ready for it at the time. It had to be a computer that you could master in five minutes. The reality has become even more rosy: anyone can operate an iPhone or iPad in a minute and if you look at the size, the computer has become even smaller than a pocket book.
#2 A tablet to take with you
In an interview with Newsweek, Jobs told how such a ’computer in a book’ should look like. “I’ve always thought it would be really wonderful to have a little box, a sort of slate that you could carry along with you.” When the first rumors about an Apple tablet surfaced, it was therefore thought that the device would be called iSlate.
#3 A computer for home, for fun
In the early 1980s, Steve Jobs made a number of predictions, which can be heard in this video, among other things. At that time, computers could only be found at large corporations and educational institutions. Jobs predicted a future where everyone would use a computer at home, for work and study. He took it one step further: we would put one at home for fun, for relaxation, to play games, watch movies and send messages to friends. This can be read in a Playboy interview from 1985, in which Jobs made even more predictions. In another interview, Jobs said that in a few years, people will spend more time with their personal computers than with their cars. Now that sounds logical, but at the time it was a remarkable statement.
#4 Children get a computer at the age of 10
In the eighties computers were still something for adults. Jobs saw it differently: “You’d get one of these things maybe when you were 10 years old”. He even predicted human-like traits: “Somehow you’d turn it on and it would say, you know, ‘Where am I?’ And you’d somehow tell it you were in California.”
#5 Streetview
In a speech to the International Design Conference in 1983, Jobs talks about photographing all the buildings, roads and intersections in Aspen, mapping everything out. Those images are then transferred to a computer, giving the impression that you are standing in the street in question. There are arrows on the screen that allow you to move forward. This idea undoubtedly inspired the later Google Streetview, which works the same way.
#6 A thriving software industry with App Store
In the early eighties, the software industry was not very big. Most computer programmers worked for large companies and used languages like Cobol. People entering a computer store had no idea what they needed. Jobs compared it to the music industry: when you walk into a record store you often know exactly which album or which artist you want, because you have heard the music on the radio. Jobs felt that the software industry also needed some sort of radio station. And because software is digital, you don't buy it in a box in the store, but electronically via the telephone line where you pay with your credit card. This sounds like the App Store. Jobs also calculates that as an individual developer you can earn money with software. Only after 2010 did it lead to a true gold rush around apps.
In a speech, Jobs also tried to persuade designers to design computers and software, rather than cars and buildings. We succeeded, because with the word ‘designer’ now you mainly think of someone who is digital.
#7 Virtual assistants, not secretaries
Jobs made his most visionary statements in the early 1980s and there was a bit of self-interest in: he had to get the personal computer into the living room. Yet he also made some statements that had nothing to do with a sales pitch. He was talking about technology that wasn't there yet.
“The next stage is going to be computers as “agents,” Jobs said in a 1984 interview with Newsweek. As if there is a person in the box who anticipates what you want. Rather than just helping you, it guides you through vast amounts of information. “It's almost like having a boyfriend in the box.” This was years before virtual assistants like Apple's Siri and Google Assistant would emerge. These digital helpers learn about your behavior and show context-sensitive information before you ask. Jobs: “Maybe it would recognize that every Friday afternoon you like to do something special, and maybe you’d like it to help you with this routine.” Later, Apple would build this into Siri.
Another notable move within Apple's own headquarters was to get rid of typewriters. Jobs felt that Apple itself should lead by example. Secretaries disappeared and took on a broader role. From then on they became ‘area associates’ called. In the office, employees could do administrative tasks on the computer themselves, without the need for an assistant.
#8 People no longer go to shops, but buy on the web
Jobs already predicted that all those personal computers would be connected, but went a step further. He expected that people would stop going to a physical store. The internet would mainly have an impact on commerce. Startups could lower their distribution costs by selling directly to consumers, without the need for middlemen. Incidentally, this has only partly become true, because many small companies have become dependent on powerful parties such as Amazon.
#9 Cloud computing
Before we had iCloud and Google Drive, Jobs predicted there was no need to have your own storage on your devices. In an interview with Wired in 1996, he said: “[Managing storage is] a very big thing in a desktop world. And that may go away. You may not have to manage your own storage.” He expected that it wouldn't take long until you would centrally store your content. He already did that himself: “I don’t store anything anymore, really. I use a lot of email and the web, and with both of those I don't have to ever manage storage. As a matter of fact, my favorite way of reminding myself to do something is to send myself email. That’s my storage.”
#10 Internet is everywhere and everyone is connected
“There will be Web dial tone everywhere”, said Jobs. “And anything that’s ubiquitous gets interesting.” The most compelling reason for people to buy a personal computer was to connect to a nationwide communications network. It wasn't until four years later that Tim Berners-Lee would develop the World Wide Web, and five years later the first web page appeared online. Communication was going to change, Jobs predicted. Instead of real-time communication, where both people had to be on the phone, communication would become asynchronous: you receive a message and reply to it when you have time.
These Steve Jobs visions did not come true
In retrospect, it's easy to see what Steve Jobs' predictions have come true. Yet there are also some statements by Jobs that we look at differently afterwards.
For example, in 1983 Jobs predicted that most innovation would come from software. When it comes to hardware, he didn't have high expectations. “Most of the new, innovative companies are focusing on the software”, said Jobs. “I think there will be lots of innovation in the areas of software but not in hardware.” Indeed, companies like HP, Dell and Acer have become less important and hardly come up with innovations, while you can see Google, Microsoft and Facebook as software companies. But Apple's greatest successes have been in hardware: the iPod, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods could not have reached their #1 position if Apple had focused solely on software.
Jobs also predicted in 1996 that the web would not radically change the lives of millions of people. We all know how that ended: we can no longer live without it.
The most recent Jobs future vision that did not go through is the one concerning television. Jobs told his biographer that he had “cracked” the code for an Apple integrated television. He knew exactly how to make an integrated TV set with ultimate ease of use. Since then, new TV cabinets and a TV service from Apple have appeared, but there's nothing revolutionary about that. Jobs’ biographer Walter Isaacson therefore regrets that Apple never did anything with those plans.
More on 10 years of Steve Jobs
Want to read more about Apple and Steve Jobs? Former designer Jony Ive has written a personal letter to Jobs for the Wall Street Journal in which he reflects. And on the Apple website, the entire front page is devoted to Jobs. Also read our previous article about 10 years of Tim Cook, in which we look back on his greatest successes and flops.