Update 21 July 2021: There has been a lot of speculation about the release of the AirPods 3, but also about the start of production has already been said. Now Nikkei claims that production of the AirPods 3 will start in August. That's consistent with Ming-Chi Kuo's claim earlier this year. That well-known Apple analyst predicted that mass production will start in the third quarter of 2021.
With production in August, Apple is well in time for a release sometime in September, possibly at the same time as the new iPhones. However, Apple may also decide to release the AirPods 3 later. This new generation will in any case get a new design, which is more similar to the current AirPods Pro. However, the question is whether the silicone earplugs are also needed on this model. Also read our overview of the recent AirPods 3 rumors.
Original article 15 March 2021
It appears from a note to investors that Kuo has circulated. If mass production doesn't start until the third quarter of 2021, they won't hit stores until later in the year. Kuo said in November that the AirPods 3 would be released in the first half of 2021. There were even rumors from others that the AirPods will be announced this month. Kuo generally has a good view of Apple's supply chains and does not see mass production taking place there for the time being.
AirPods 3 in Q3 2021
With this late delivery, Kuo expects AirPods sales to decline by about 25 percent in the first through third quarters of 2021 to about 55 million units. Overall, Kuo thinks Apple will sell 78 million AirPods this year, up from 90 million last year. Most current AirPods owners will wait until the battery is so bad that you can no longer use them properly. With the very first generation of AirPods, the problem at one point was that the usage time became too short. However, having the battery replaced is not an option; they cannot be repaired or opened without destroying them.
It is still unclear whether Apple will stop with the AirPods 2 when the new model comes on the market. Kuo says Apple is in a dilemma. If the AirPods 2 remain on the market as a cheaper alternative, it will affect the demand for AirPods 3. But if Apple only offers the more expensive new model, it could mean people won't buy at all. For iPhones and Apple Watches, Apple has therefore always kept a cheaper model in its range. This may also happen with the AirPods.
If Apple discontinues the AirPods 2, Kuo predicts the following distribution in sales figures for the year 2021:
- AirPods 3: 40%
- AirPods 2: 31%
- AirPods Pro: 28%
- AirPods Max: 1%
To boost sales of the AirPods Pro, Apple has released the promotional video below:
According to Kuo, Apple is facing increased competition and loss of market share when it comes to wireless earphones. The AirPods have quickly become popular as the must-have product. But in the meantime, there are several cheaper wireless earphones on the market and people are now more inclined to choose them. You may miss a few specific functions such as quick switching and easy pairing, but according to Kuo, these advantages are gradually negated by the improved user experience of competing earphones. The lower price is also a factor here.
