Canada is the second largest country in the world, member of NATO and the G7. On Monday, the Canadians elect a new Parliament. The result has implications for the Rest of the world says Canada expert Martin Thunert.
Deutsche Welle: Mr Thunert, Canada chooses a new Parliament. Why should anyone care in the Rest of the world?
Martin Thunert: at the Latest since the election of Donald Trump to the US President and his criticism of the rule-based international order, it is important for Europe to have in North America more closely allied. And although Canada is, for many in the world, a white spot on the political map, it plays an important role. Canada is a member of the G7, a member of NATO, a member of the G20 and many other major international organizations, and clubs. Because automatically the weight of the world.
At the table of the G7, G20 and NATO, Canada’s liberal government chief Justin Trudeau sits at the Moment. But this could change soon. The conservative party of Challenger Andrew Scheer is with the liberals neck and neck. How likely is a power exchange in Canada?
Martin Thunert
If the polls are completely wrong, then none of the two major parties – neither the liberals nor the Conservatives will achieve the absolute majority of the seats in Parliament. Canada, it is usual to have in such a case, minority governments rather than coalitions. Canada had the over a longer period of time in the past decade, and even up to the beginning of this decade – and it works usually quite well.
Andrew Scheer should lie just in front, I do not see, however, as he will then get a stable support in the Parliament. He could of course start without a majority and then for any law of new allies. I don’t know how he wants to do in terms of content. For many of his projects, he is unlikely to get the support of the Greens or the social Democrats.
Because the polls show that the forces of the left – the social Democrats and the Green will be in this election strong. Therefore, I could well imagine that Trudeau could remain without its own majority in Power, and then on the support of the left parties need.
Prime Minister Trudeau has not lost in the Land of popularity. What is the reason?
The first two years of his term went well. After that, he has proved in a number of cases, poor judgment. He is, for example, a company from his native province of Quebec, beige jumped out, that was involved in a corruption scandal. In this context, Trudeau on his, against the company, investigating justice Minister Jody Wilson has exercised Raybould strong pressure to let the investigation drop. He urged Wilson-Raybould, finally out of office, the first Minister of justice, with a native American origin. This was not good. In addition, he has decided to nationalize a private oil Pipeline and build. He has created also with environmentalists and their confidence to be largely lost.
Incumbent Justin Trudeau
Also, dealing with Trump is no longer managed since the G7 summit in Canada in 2018 as in the beginning hoped. Prior to that, he was next to the President of France, Emmanuel Macron as the one who knows best how to handle Trump. All this and more has led to linkages that have damaged its Image.
Andrew Scheer is still a pretty blank slate. He would have been a stronger Challenger in the Conservative party, Trudeau would have to fear now is to lose the Power entirely.
A look at the Challenger: Donald Trump imposed a travel ban against people from Muslim countries, invited Trudeau, the people of Canada. This would have happened under Andrew Scheer also?
No, probably not in this Form. In Canada, it is not so much a question of whether people should immigrate, but who immigrates like. Trudeau has been invited with a misleading Tweet by the people to run across the green border from the USA over to Canada. And, this was also when the majority of the population is in favour of immigration in principle, good.
Challenger Andrew Scheer
I think Scheer would therefore be a more restrictive line. This does not exclude, however, that you would take in from crisis zones, certain quotas of refugees. However, illegal crossing of the border, the Canadians don’t like. They are due to their geographical location, with the USA as the only neighbours, not in the usual way.
Scheer has announced that Trudeaus CO-tax and to abolish and to cut development aid. Would back the Prime Minister Scheer closer to Donald Trump?
Officially, certainly not. Nevertheless, the canadian government would lie, then, certainly ideologically closer to Trump and the conservative government in the UK as a Trudeau. But so far, not known to Scheer, the international at all. Only in the circles of the Conservative party in the UK, you could start with his name, has shown a survey. Even in the USA and in Parts of Canada you don’t know much about him.
Would Scheer Canada to remove further and further from Europe?
Should Scheer to come to Power, then mainly because of the voters in the West of Canada. These regions are, like Canada, still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. That’s why I could imagine that it could be in energy, environmental and climate policy issues more disagreement with France, Germany and the EU, as it is with Trudeau on the case.
When trading, I believe, will not be so. I could even imagine that the government will be more friendly, than under Trudeau. Scheer also, NATO is likely to be set-friendly and so on Trudeaus conservative predecessor Stephen Harper to continue.
For Scheer even this Harper comparison, however, is a double-edged sword. Harper has won several elections, was at the end but relatively unpopular, because he was very authoritarian with his majority government. That’s why Trudeau was able to win four years ago is also such a huge surprise victory.
This time, the polls are probably more accurate to see this head-to-head-race – with perhaps a slight advantage for the Conservatives. I would lean out the window and say that we will see a kind of minority government. If the holds then for four years, is another question.
The political scientist Martin Thunert is since 2007 at the Center for American Studies (HCA), Ruprecht-Karls-University of Heidelberg.
The Interview was conducted by Patrick Great.