The leading research institutes looking sceptical on the German economy. The gross domestic product will grow this year by only 0.5 percent in 2020 to 1.1 percent, said in its autumn report.
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Researchers cut growth forecast
In the spring, the institutes had still been expecting growth of 0.8 and 1.8 percent. “The industry is in recession, its production is since one and a half years in decline, what is decisive for the economic weakness,” it says in the report, which was released on Wednesday. This lull of streams gradually also on business-related service providers.
After the Shrinking of the economy in the spring of the GDP should be decreased also in the third quarter, said Economists. They stressed, however: “An economic crisis with a distinct under-utilisation of the German economy is not, despite a decline in economic performance is to be expected in the summer half of the year 2019.” However, the trade conflicts of the United States, China and the EU, as well as the uncertainty about the future economic relations between the UK and the EU, have increased the uncertainty: “With negative consequences for investment in the world,” added the researchers.
Criticism of the Minister of Finance
Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) is criticised in the report for it, in spite of the economy, no new debt as well as weak to. “Adherence to the black Zero would be harmful,” it says. In order to stabilize the economy, had to breathe that the public budget is “”, and the debt-to-offer-Bremse explicitly game room – you can credit to a small extent.
The research institutes assume that the ECB will not change, despite the reservations of the Bundesbank, the rules for its bond purchases. In the current framework, the scope for acquisitions will be limited, predicted it. A much greater scope for purchases would be, for example, in the case of Spanish, Italian and French government bonds, provided that past practice will be abandoned, to purchase the securities that is proportional to the ECB capital key. This key ensures that more state bonds of countries that provide the ECB with more capital available.
DIHK: Positive pulses to the negative Trend set
Federal Economics Minister, Peter Altmaier, does not see the economy in Germany despite the current weakness in a strong downward spiral. “We do not have a current economic crisis,” said Altmaier in Berlin on Wednesday, in response to the report. Such a crisis is not threatening also. The prospects, however, were dampened by the international trade conflicts and the unexplained Brexit question. This is the industry to meet, especially.
DIHK chief Executive Martin Wansleben sees the autumn report, in his opinion, confirmed. “The industrial production has been four consecutive quarters of decline – this is an alarm signal. Because new impulses are to be expected in view of the Brexits and the many trade conflicts can hardly be.” As important, positive signals to oppose. “So that Germany remains an attractive location for the company, the businesses affordable energy, faster planning and approval processes, faster, and digital infrastructure and a competitive tax system.”
The so-called community diagnosis serves the Federal government as a Basis for their own projections, which in turn form the basis for the tax estimate. Is developed the report at the Leibniz-Institute for economic research (RWI) in Essen, the German Institute for economic research (DIW) in Berlin, the Ifo Institute in Munich, the Kiel Institute for the world economy (IfW) in Kiel and the Leibniz Institute for economic research (IWH) in Halle.
ul/hb (rtr, dpa)