The output of the Landtag elections in Brandenburg and Saxony could cause a political earthquake, and also the politics in Berlin are changing.
August is nearing the end and all look in the East of Germany: On 1. September will be held in Brandenburg and Saxony state elections. The outcome of the election will not only decide the future of the respective States, but also the Federal government could have wide impact.
But why these two state elections are so important for Germany?
1. The right-wing populist AfD could write history
The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), is by no means an exclusively East German phenomenon. It is the largest opposition party in the German Bundestag, and it has members in every German state Parliament. The party learns, especially in the East, a lot of restraint. While the AfD can nationwide account for about 13 percent of the electorate, it is the current choice according to surveys, 25 percent in Saxony and 21 per cent in Brandenburg.
In part, your return is based grip on your Anti-migration policy, while the migration policy of the Federal government in East Germany was often criticized. The most recent surveys have shown that, at the election in Saxony, the asylum and immigration policy of a party is one of the decisive factors, where the voters your cross will make.
The AfD should be the strongest party in one of the two provinces, would be for the six-year-old’s party a great success. It would also be the first Time since the end of the Second world war, that a right-wing populist party was the largest faction in a country day. As a result, may also affect the dynamics in the run-up to a month pending Thüringen-election. Björn Höcke of Thuringia, the AfD-Chairman and founder of the national “wing” of the party.
Jörg Urban Saxonys AfD-Chef
2. The Left at the crossroads
Only in Thuringia, the party has Left the Prime Minister. Today’s left party, which is a significant reduction from the former GDR state party SED and in the United Germany party of Democratic socialism (PDS) was called, achieved her best result, where it has its historical roots.
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Countdown to state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg
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Countdown to state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg
Meanwhile, the Left is often referred to as both the East German people’s party as a protest party. Their support in the East has decreased in the past ten years.
The Afd works in their election campaigns with Slogans based on the time of the GDR civil rights movement. If left-wing voters moving really to the AfD, then it would have made the AfD, Left the reputation as East German Anti-Establishment party to take away.
3. Can thrive the Green in a historically difficult environment?
Alliance 90/The Greens at the national level in the course, supported by the results of the EU election in may. But especially Brandenburg and Saxony are not considered to be particularly Green-friendly, because there the mining of brown coal has been an important branch of the economy, although the number of employed persons has declined since reunification. In the past the Greens have had often problems to create the Five-percent hurdle for entry into the state parliaments of Saxony and Brandenburg.
Latest polls suggest that the Greens win in the East, but is currently on retention. In Brandenburg, you draw according to the Figures, almost equal with the conservative CDU and the social Democrats (SPD). Due to their immigration-friendly policy, the Greens are seen by many as the exact counterpart to the AfD. Depending on how the other parties could take the Green on the role of king-maker.
The Greens on the election campaign tour in Saxony (left: Anna Lena Baerbock, right: Robert Habeck, middle: Wolfram Günther, and Katja Meier)
4. Which could mean the election for Angela Merkel’s Grand coalition?
The state elections are considered to be a stress test for the strength of the large coalition from CDU/CSU and SPD in Berlin. Brandenburg is a SPD stronghold of Saxony and traditionally conservative.
Both the CDU and the SPD are likely to lose voters, so that even the speech is that the Grand coalition could break in Berlin. This would not automatically mean that there would be new elections, because Angela Merkel could form a minority government. The party tours have been announced for October, a critical account of their cooperation.
5. What could happen next?
A reliable prediction about the outcome of the elections you can make, but a political fragmentation seems to be safe, because even at the national and the European level, the majority appear to change ratios. Brandenburg and Saxony, are expected to form according to the choice researchers are no exception.
The current Two-party coalitions will probably not happen. All the established parties have ruled out to form coalitions with the AfD. This could mean that in the future, three to four parties for a coalition would have to close. That would be more difficult if the AfD were to go as the strongest party from the elections. Although in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia only about ten percent of the German population, could trigger these elections a political storm.