For years, the situation is tense in the German housing market. This is especially true for large cities. From a new study: The Housing is expensive. But there is also hope.
“Looking for apartment”. More and more often you read such Ads, in the newspaper, on the Internet or on the Bulletin boards in super markets. Because more and more people in Germany are faced with the Problem to find a suitable place to Stay. In particular, in the large cities, the market is empty. The result is that The price is rising, affordable housing is a scarce commodity.
The lack of the Institute of the German economy (IW) in Cologne, now in concrete Figures. His recently published study suggests that is was built in Germany in the last three years – around new 283.000 apartments came on the market. However, this covers the new requirements only to four-fifths. The gap between supply and demand is to be closed, there is a need in this and the coming year, each of about 340,000 new flats. The municipalities are required, especially studies author Ralf Henger says in a DW interview. You would have to try to ease the Build.
Especially the big cities are still lagging behind according to the study, during the construction. So were built in Cologne and Stuttgart, only about half of the apartments, which would be, according to the IW needed to cover the demand. Also in Munich, Frankfurt and Berlin to build less homes than needed, if the discrepancy is small. But also in other cities is hardly built enough. “Here, apartments not just currently, but also in the longer term, there is a need for a further increase in the construction activity”, – stated in the study.
The Boom in the construction sites: In Germany, many will not be built, but long enough apartments
Lack of personnel and regulations
The reasons for the shortage are varied, said Tobias Just, managing Director and scientific head of the “International Real Estate Business School” the University of Regensburg. “The most important factor is the access to the land”, so Just talking to the DW’s. “There is a certain extent simply because of building possibilities. In addition, the approval process will run in a number of cities are still too slow.”
There would be the Problem, that everywhere, where could be built, citizens against new construction projects to protest. “You say, quite rightly, that this would affect their quality of living. This then leads, conversely, that even where this is to be built not in the possible speed is done”.
Distressing is also another factor to have any effect, so Just: “construction costs have risen in the last few years. This has led to the is built mainly in one Segment: the relatively expensive.”
Small supply, big demand: demand for apartment tour
Tension in the cities
Especially tense is the situation in the Large University cities. High immigration, scarce personnel, in building authorities, strict regulations and the shortage of skilled workers in the construction sector, weighed on growth. “You can’t keep up with the Build,” said Ralph Henger, one of the authors, in an interview with DW. The cities would have to make an effort to brake the development of the Rent.
The most important task is to expand the access to land, so Tobias Just. “This also means that we must think of the cities a little bigger. We can not assume that we can every year, 300 000 residential units in the existing structures. Instead, the cities need to grow outward. The then forces, but also to peripheral locations more attractive – for example, by the shifting of authorities in smaller cities or the Expansion of public transport.”
Construction boom in structurally weak regions
It looks totally different to the authors of the IDW-study on the country: “While in the Metropolitan areas there is a veritable battle for the living room rages on, is built into many of the weaker counties and cities to much.” In 69 of 401 cities and counties have been built in the past two years, about 50 percent more apartments than according to the IW model are actually needed. The result was vacancy.
To see more of demonstrations for affordable housing
Acute the Problem will remain for the foreseeable future, but in the cities. Rents are likely to continue to rise, expected, Just, if not quite as strong as in recent years. Because in the meantime, would be more built than a few years ago. Also the influx of people into the big cities was no longer quite so solid. Therefore, rent increases are expected to be slightly slower, presumed to be Just. “The prices for real estate will probably rise a little more than the Rent. This is because institutional investors have little Alternative to real estate. Due to the weak returns in other asset, you are urged forms literally, in real estate.”
After all, a reasonably good news is that the study contains. In perspective the Problem of housing shortage could be alleviated, at least slightly: According to an estimate by the authors of the study, the demand in 2025 is reduced to a year around 260,000 by 2030 to approximately 246.000 apartments. The main reason for this is that The expected decline in immigration, which is not expected to remain permanently at a level of more than 400,000 people per year. Until then, it is likely a hot, but often continue to: apartment wanted urgently.