After it became known that Iran has violated the nuclear agreement, growing tensions in the Persian Gulf. An escalation would not be able to Saudi, to feel Arabia. However, Riyadh has a lot to lose.
Iran has produced more low-enriched uranium than it has under the with the International community, negotiated by the United States, but unilaterally-atom announced would be deal allowed. The International atomic energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on Monday. With this step, Iran had made an announcement of the beginning of may true, the limits no longer to be observed, not should join him its contract partner. The confirmation of the IAEA triggered sharp reactions. “Playing with fire” called the American President Donald Trump with the step. He also said that the decision to have Iran in the international atomic energy agreement, any enrichment of uranium allowed, was a mistake. Trump also called for “maximum pressure” on Iran.
The five permanent members of the UN security Council criticized the violation of Iran. France and Britain called on Tehran, the agreed requirements of the nuclear agreement to be complied with. China and Russia expressed “Regret”, gave the United States but also responsible for the escalation of the conflict. Israel called on the European partners to increase pressure on Tehran with its own sanctions.
Iran’s foreign Minister Javad Zarif do not want to have against the nuclear deal failed to
Iran with a new strategy
Iran reacted immediately to the accusations. His country has not violated the nuclear agreement, said Iranian foreign Minister Mohammed Dschawaf Zarif via Twitter. The enrichments were done in accordance with the regulations of the Treaty, Zarif. As soon as the three major European States – are to give the recognize meant Germany, France and great Britain – that they would continue to their commitments, will also meet Iran in the agreements, so Dscharif.
Iran had changed its strategy in the last few weeks, says the political scientist Imad Abshnas of the University of Tehran in an interview with DW. “The country cannot tolerate the pressure of the USA and the indifference of other countries. Tehran have communicated to the world a message: Either keep all of the agreement, or no one, not even Iran itself.
“The sanctions we have been a long time ago pressed on it, now you dread more no more”, so Abshnas. The development of the coming days and weeks, he considers difficult to calculate. A war could not be ruled out, given the unpredictable decisions. “Should be forced to the Iranians but to do so, you would defend yourself.”
Unpredictability as a tactic
The US has sent warships in the Region, Iran has allegedly damaged in the secret service actions in a number of international trading ships in the Gulf of Oman. Also Tehran claims to have an American drone was shot down. The message could is obvious: When it comes down to it, and you’ll fight back. The attacks on the merchant ships indicate that Iran would focus primarily on asymmetrical warfare: In this, each object can be the target of an attack. Asymmetric warfare is gaining strength due to their unpredictability.
The U.S. military provided Video is to show the attack on an oil Tanker in the Gulf of Oman
It should come to a confrontation, should this also get some of the neighboring States of Iran to feel, above all, the arch-rival Saudi Arabia. His country did not want war with Iran, said the Saudi defense Minister Adel – Al-Jubeir on Monday during a visit to Tokyo. He called at the same time, however, the pressure on Iran to maintain. The Kingdom should not allow the Iranian Regime, “its aggressive policies, such as the attacks on oil Transporter and Pipelines to continue”, so-Jubeir. So, Iran will take the global economy and energy security in the crosshairs.
Determination in Tehran
It is questionable, however, how this pressure should look like. So far, Iran has shown both the sanctions and the military threat a little impressed. The sanctions would weaken Iraq, though, says the former head of the Mossad, Efraim Halevy, compared to the Swiss news magazine Watson. But it is to accept a fallacy, he’ll stop to support organizations such as Hamas or Hezbollah, both of which are on the terrorist list of the European Union. “The Iranians will have the support of these organizations for so long, until your country with the United States and the free world may lead to serious negotiations about its needs,” expected Halevy.
Basically, the USA would have to be interested in Iran to the negotiating table to retrieve suspected Halevy. “But I don’t think that is possible, if the US humiliate the Iranians and, more recently, even the leader of the revolution.”
Saudi Interests
Currently, there are two options for dealing with Iran are on the table: The military and economic pressure to force him in the knee. And to the other basic willingness to talk, combined with the willingness to take the concerns of Iran seriously, and you as much as possible.
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Iran summit in Jerusalem
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Iran crisis: security consultants Meeting in Jerusalem
The second Option Saudi should make Arabia more serious thought, writes the political analyst Yasmine Farouk from the Carnegie Foundation. The danger before their eyes, should have the Kingdom strong interest in the dialogue with Tehran. It is therefore risky to rely exclusively on the confrontation strategy of the United States. Representatives of the Trump Administration expected from Saudi Arabia’s full support against Iran, and regardless of the consequences for the Kingdom. “Such a maximum pressure may bring the Kingdom in the short term, although some advantages, but the road to war is a long one. If the Status persists quo, then more Saudi can be sunk cal ships, and there are more Saudi can be killed ash, civilians and soldiers,” said Farouk.
In addition, Saudi Arabia was also from Yemen, out of the very vulnerable. Actually, the of the Iran-supported Houthi rebels have fired from there are already missiles on the Saudi border. The proxy war that the two regional powers in Yemen, could spread in the case of an open escalation on Saudi Arabia. If it really comes down to, is open. The actors have to a large extent even in the Hand.