After the rift between the military Council and the protest movement, the political future of the country is open again. The attention of Sudan’s neighbours keep track of the development. Because it also plays a role.
The violent dissolution of the roadblocks in Khartoum with at least 35 dead, then the Declaration, the agreements also by civilians-represented a transitional government to terminate: The Sudanese military leadership has taken over the protest movement and a hard course.
At the same time, the army said, to leave within seven months of elections to hold before the speech was even nine months. This would be carried out under “regional and international supervision”, – said the head of the Sudanese military Council, Abdel Fattah Burhan. But the Opposition wants to know nothing. It demands as a first step, furthermore, the establishment of the transitional Council. The military have taken a “coup,” said its spokesman.
In order to increase the pressure on the military, had called on the protesters in the past week to a two-day General strike. Since then, it has worsened the relationship between you and the military tremendously. In the case of smaller skirmishes, several people had died.
Intensified clashes: a protester in Khartoum, 3. June 2019
An international conflict
The conflict in Sudan is no longer a national more. Behind-the-Scenes actors from the Region seek to influence. All of them, it is clear that the development in Sudan is broadcasting also in the neighbouring countries. Due to its geo-strategic location, especially Saudi-Arabia is interested in development there. “The different programs, representing the ruling military, were seen in Riyadh, always very attentive,” says the Sudanese political analyst Mohamed Kawas. This was particularly the case for the government of Omar al-Bashir, the continued political Islam and close ties to Qatar and Turkey, two countries to which Saudi Arabia is a strained relationship.
Although al was involved-Bashir recently at the Saudi Arabia-led international Alliance in Yemen, but the relations between the two countries were to each other in a state of careful approach: “The forced resignation of al-Baschirs gives Saudi Arabia a reason to hope, that there is a different Regime prevails, designed to the the relationship is easier,” says Kawas.
Conversely, the military Council has recognised the importance of its neighbors on the other side of the Red sea. Other countries in the Region will be for the army leadership increasingly important. So travelled the Vice-Chairman of the military Council, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, called Hemeti, in the past week after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt. “In the discussions it could have possibly gave signals that led to the violence at the beginning of this week,” says Annette Weber of the Berlin Foundation “science and politics” in an Interview with DW. “Would be the, that would be a most worrying development.”
Familiar conversation partners: the leader of the Sudanese military Council, Abdel Fattah Burhan (li.) and the crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan (right), Abu Dhabi, 27. May 2019
The interests of Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The Saudi interests in the Sudan are obvious, says Annette Weber. The government in Riyadh would be the country’s military Council prefer to continue in Power. “Through its Chairman, Abdel Fattah Burhan, as well as Vice-Dagalo, has the Saudi government a degree of influence in the Sudan. Both are not only in Yemen-war on the side of the Saudi Alliance, but also middle men between the Sudan and the two Gulf States.”
Both commanders apply in Riyadh in Doha as a guarantor of a relatively conservative political and social order, explains: “The governments of Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to avoid that in the Sudan to a Revolution from below. They prefer that changes to the state tip and controlled, always controlled trajectories. Therefore, they are also concerned that the influence of the Muslim brotherhood could lead to an increase in Sudan.”
Egypt, the neighbour to the North
A possible presence of the Muslim brothers in the southern prepares the neighboring country, the Egyptian government under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Worry about. After 2013, the first democratically elected President of the country, was toppled from the ranks of the Muslim brotherhood master Mohamed Morsi, relations with the government of the Muslim brothers most tense. Thousands of them are part of without process – in the country’s prisons, many are sentenced to death.
In addition, the government of Al-Sisi in Sudan, other interests, have Annette Weber says: “It is also a matter of geopolitical issues. So also the debate about the so-called Halaib triangle on the Egyptian could increase-Sudanese border, directly on the Red sea, again. Also in the dispute over the water of the Nile, leading Egypt to Ethiopia, Cairo is dependent on a reliable Partner in the Sudan. One wishes, of course, that he is on the side of Egypt.”
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Violence in Sudan
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Violence in Sudan
Lessons from the “Arab spring”
At the same time, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE from the experiences of the Arab spring have also learned, says political analyst Mohamed Kawas. All countries had interests in the Sudan. “But be wary, because they know that each strong interference from the outside, the legitimacy of the respective government to undermine.”
Lack of legitimacy, so Central to the experience gained since the revolution of 2011, use of any government pressure. Already since weeks, what effort would be, as always, occupied the leadership in the Sudan, this pressure to withstand.