The resignation of Andrea Nahles as SPD Chairman has rocked German politics. Elections, coalition change, minority government – what next? Possible scenarios for the future and the Status quo.
The Drama of the Grand coalition: The SPD is currently in its third “Grand coalition” under Angela Merkel, together with the Union parties CDU/CSU. She has lost during the mass-voters, although many of the SPD were implemented, plans. New bad election results have brought the barrel to Overflowing. Andrea Nahles has given back to their posts as party Chairman and as a group leader in the Bundestag.
Power vacuum:avoid The SPD is a lack of new leadership people. The party has nonetheless quickly found a replacement for Andrea Nahles – transition candidates. What time is the party and the group, chaired by newly-elected open – see graphic.
Strategic Dilemma for the SPD: The social Democrats have many of the classic voters lost. Also of course, the AfD, which appeals in particular to the “little man”. The social Democrats are trying to score points with modern topics such as environmental protection and Gender. But the Greens can be better. The spectrum was always close: The CDU is wide in the middle, the left party is pushing from the left.
Peaceful sister parties: unlike a year ago, along with both Union parties CDU and CSU, just very good. The coalition government has stabilized – they both want to hold on to the coalition.
When could it rip? There are several exit points in time. An SPD party Congress could decide the end of the coalition. Regular the next Meeting for December is scheduled, he could be brought forward to September. In the discussion the members of the decision. The Exit should be-but even louder is also a faster decision-making possible.
New elections? The basic law does not love stability, new elections are not so simple. The Parliament cannot dissolve itself. Chancellor Angela Merkel would have to put the question of Confidence – and lose.
The Federal President decides: elections can only the Federal President, currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to exclaim. This must happen three weeks after a lost vote of Confidence. A new election would then be held within 60 days.
Winners and losers? The traditional people’s parties CDU, CSU and SPD are in a historical survey deep. Accordingly, threatens them to lose in new elections mandates. The big winner of the Green would be good. But also the political margins – the Left and the AfD would receive more votes.
Government without the CDU/CSU? For a complete change to the SPD, the greens and the Left makes the majorities are missing at the moment. The CDU/CSU remain, therefore, likely to be in Power.
New Coalition? Computer would be possible – without election – a so-called “Jamaica coalition” of CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens. This was after the Federal election in 2017 anyway, Merkel’s coalition. At that time, the FDP did not take part. Now bristle for the time being? – the Greens. Because they hope for new elections, more mandates, and thus on a more powerful basis for negotiations for a new coalition. With the AfD, nobody wants to form a coalition. Merkel might lead the new coalition, or your chancellorship make.
Minority government? The SPD should leave the coalition and “Jamaica” failure would be a government without its own majority possible. In a “minority government” is to search for laws changing majorities. At the Federal level, there was a government without its own majority, as yet, very rarely, and then for a few weeks.
Coalition partners Nahles and Angela Merkel: No majority without the Union
What about Merkel? Angela Merkel wants to the next Federal election in 2021 to continue. But it has been a “crown Princess”: the CDU Chairman Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. “AKK”, as it is called, could take over sooner, a new coalition government or a minority government to lead. However, it was the last vote that Merkel wanted a change of power not force. And yet, it is unclear whether Kramp-Karrenbauer had the support of other parties.
The future of the SPD? Small consolation for the oldest party of Germany: International plug in other social democratic parties in the crisis. The party-young is pushing for a sharp left of course.
Everything as usual? The SPD could remain in the government. However, the Landtag elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in September, clearly lost, there is growing pressure to leave the Alliance with the Union party.