The Kremlin is offering Ukrainians Russian citizenship, but not only those in the annexed Crimea and in the embattled Donbass region. Experts explain, what are the problems of the Kremlin in order to solve.
Russia urgently needs to Ukrainians. This is the impression that, if you look at how Moscow people from the Ukraine get into the country. Everything at the end of April began with a decree from President Vladimir Putin. Since then, it is for the people in the Donbass, the Moscow-backed “people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk,” has become easier to get a Russian passport. According to a further decree also Ukrainians, who have left the Donbass and the Crimea or legal in Russia are staying can be easier for Russian citizens.
In addition, the Russian Parliament is currently examining a law, the issue of a permanent residence permit for foreigners will be simplified in Russia. Observers suspect that this law is aimed at Ukrainians. The Kremlin has declared, acting solely out of humanitarian Considerations. However, experts assume that Russia wants to solve in this way, demographic problems.
Demographic Changes
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian TV channel RT, wrote on Facebook, if nothing was done, would be a change in the population up to 2040 so strong, that Russia is going to turn into a “Muslim country”. People from the Donbass, as well as other migrants could therefore help the “fragile Status quo of a domination of the Russian-Orthodox Christianity” to maintain, so the journalist.
So it began: In February of 2017, Putin said the recognition of passports of the people’s Republic of Donetsk
Anatoliy Vishnevskiy from the Institute of demography of the Higher school of Economics in Moscow does not believe, however, that the Orthodox Russians could be in one’s own country to a minority. “We always had a proportion of non-Muslim peoples, but of them not a quick population’s growth,” said the expert. In the North Caucasus, although there were some republics with high birth rates, but even there, you would go back.
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko moved to 2014 after the change of power in Kiev to Moscow, does not exclude, however, that the Russians as “state could be a load-bearing Ethnos” to the minority. However, the annexation of the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea has earned him, according to Russia two million new citizens, plus a Million refugees from the Donbass, who have, in the meantime, Russian passports.
Putin luring Ukraine citizens with Russian passports
Already in the spring of 2014, just a few days before the annexation of the Crimea, had declared the Russian political scientist Aleksandr Borodai in a YouTube Video, Russia need Russian-speaking people to solve its demographic problems. Borodai, who was later Prime Minister of the “Donetsk people’s Republic”, said: “We need the Ukraine. Russia’s main problem is not the economy, but the demographics.”
Three possible scenarios
Russia’s demographic problems, President Putin in front of the Parliament at the end of February unusually open. According to a forecast by the Russian Bureau of statistics “Rosstat” by October 2018, could shrink in the extreme case of a negative development of the population of Russia up to 2035, currently of 146.9 to 138,8 million. Even under more favourable circumstances, the decline could amount to two million.
A positive development could, however, lead to a growth in population of six million people. This would however only be possible if starting from 2023 in Russia, the more people are born than die. But needs to increase in this scenario, especially the influx of migrants and almost half a Million people per year.
How many Ukrainians might be Russians?
The Ukrainian foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said in the past year, in Russia, about three million refugees and labour migrants from the Ukraine would live. However, Oleksij Pozniak from the Institute of demography of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine assumes, of millions could be no question. According to him, about 300,000 Ukrainians to travel regularly to Russia. The offer for a Russian passport will not change that much. “We do not expect a large influx of Ukrainians to Russia,” the expert says.
Population growth by passport
Vladimir Kipen, from the Institute for social research in the Ukrainian Vinnytsia place, Russia could win with his Pass-offer up to two million Ukrainians, half of them migrant workers. “Putin’s decrees aimed at those who work in Russia, but also on those who live in the Kiev-controlled areas of the Donbass, and there are no prospects for more,” said the analyst. At the same time, he stressed that from the point of view of younger people with a Ukrainian passport will offer more freedom to travel, including visa-free travel to the EU.
Also Anatoly is Vishnevskiy from the Institute of demography of the Higher school of Economics in Moscow to remember that Russia has strong competition. Many Ukrainians would prefer to emigrate to Poland and Western Europe. And the people of Donbass would come mostly with problems to Russia. “There are a lot of retirees,” says the expert. According to him, the birth rate among the immigrants from the Donbass, even below the Russian average, which does not contribute to the solution of demographic problems of Russia.