The consequences of a disorderly Brexits would be for Europe, even worse than for the UK. The British historian Timothy Garton Ash notes in the Exclusive Interview with DW.
Deutsche Welle: compare the Brexit with a soap Opera. But this is really just a “Soap Opera” or a serious threat to the whole of the European continent?
Timothy Garton Ash: A British tragedy is a Farce. In my opinion, the negative consequences for Europe could be even more serious than for the UK. Even now, the forces of populism, nationalism and disintegration in Europe are active and the Brexit could give you a big boost.
The EU can do anything about it?
I hope you will agree to a long flexible suspension of the Brexit. This would allow for a democratic process that would lead to a second Referendum, and perhaps to a great Britain remain in the EU, which would be a fantastic opportunity for Europe, or to a “softer” Brexit. Both variants would be less bad for Europe.
Would mean remaining in the EU, many people to feel betrayed? This could lead to a violent reaction and an increase of populism in the UK?
I hear this Argument more and more often in continental Europe, the UK as a problematic EU member, it will be even used metaphors like “cancer” or “poison”. I’m pretty shocked at how many of my friends think it would be the lesser of two Evils, if we just went. But if we think of the long-term Dimension to the relations with China, or Trumps of the USA, to climate change, it is clearly better if the UK is in the EU. It would be not easy at the beginning, but we would make it. And in the end we would be in a better position.
You don’t believe that there is in Europe, the perception that the UK should pull out now? That the United Kingdom might need the Brexit for its “national soul”?
Someone told me that German Chancellor Angela Merkel have used the word “empathetic” to describe their relationship to the UK. And we have the feeling that Germany understands better than some other countries in Europe that we have to go through that process. I know, it is very much requested by our European partners, but we need time. Democracy is sometimes messy and slow. The UK has one of the oldest democracies in the world, and it still works. Give the Parliament a couple of weeks, and it will reach the goal. Should this not succeed, however, until the end of this year, however, I give myself.
How do you rate Angela Merkel’s behavior in the Brexit process?
The British historian Timothy Garton Ash
She was great: quiet, statesman-like and decided. You and the Germans have much more understanding for the British than any other in Europe. Looking back at the Referendum, the following question arises, however: Does the Chancellor, perhaps not in retrospect, with the Knowledge that Immigration has become such a huge topic, that you would have granted to the then British Prime Minister David Cameron, the desired emergency brake on free movement of persons in the EU? This would have led to a contrary result in the Referendum, we had a debate about a Reform of the EU, instead of about the fucking Brexit – Britain as an ally of Germany.
The Brexit a positive influence on Europe?
I wish I could see a silver lining on the horizon. But Germany saw itself in the past, challenged to take on more leadership responsibility, which would have been a big step for the policy and public opinion. By the Brexit, the already very high bar will be placed three feet higher. I’m not sure if the German Public and policy-makers would be willing to take on this responsibility. I don’t see anything on Brexit, which could be for Europe. After all, there is something Positive for the UK, because we are finally waking up and see what we have to lose. Six million people have signed a Petition asking for the whereabouts in the EU – this is a small glimmer of hope.
What are the consequences of No-Deal-Brexits for the relationship between Britain and the EU would be?
That would poison relations for a whole Generation. A game of mutual recriminations would begin. The British would give in continental Europe, the debt and Vice versa. And the economic consequences could be very grim and serious. It gives the Illusion that you can separate the security policy and external relations, and artificially of the economic – an Illusion, in my opinion, especially the French succumb. If the economic relations are bad for Britain, if we have a bad recession and mass unemployment, if in hospitals people die, because it comes to bottlenecks in the supply of drugs, will have a negative impact on the security and defence policy. Next, the United Kingdom would then enter into a special relationship with China, and then you can forget a common European China policy.
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You believe that great Britain would honor in the event of No-Deal-Brexits again in the direction of the EU?
I warn against believing the. Many of my friends believe, we would be back within a few years. This is absolute nonsense. Firstly, this is a misreading of the British. We are hard-headed and stubborn, a few years would have to, before we ever see to have made a big mistake. Secondly, The Scots would go, and Northern Ireland would also be way to the side of Ireland. We were back in the 16th century. Century, the basic structure of the UK would be called into question. In addition, the European Union itself would also change, along the French-German lines, and, therefore, it would be a different EU. In that case, we would have no more favors, like the “rebate” (Anm. d. Red.: since the 80s the British contributions to the EU Budget are reduced). We would have to sign up for the Euro. It was all an Illusion.