In China, the number of work-age population for the first time in decades. This is a challenge for the Social and health system, the not, is the downfall of the country, but it says Frank Sieren.
In China, less and less children are born
It is a turning point in the recent history of China: 2018, the birth rate declined for the second year in a row. 15.23 million Chinese came to the world – two million less than in the previous year. A low not seen since the 1960s. The number of people in the working age between 16 and 59 fell within the last five years by 20 million people. At this rate, the working population will have shrunk from the former high of 925 million in the year 2011 to 2050, 700 million people. Then, each of the third Chinese is a pensioner. The average life expectancy is now proud to 77 years, with a Per capita income of Bulgaria.
For the economic and social balance of the country’s big challenges: fewer workers the pension for the over 60 need to ensure Year-olds. The relatively poorly developed health and social system under pressure.
Since the 2016 couples can officially have two children. Effects on the birth rate but this has not so far.
No baby boom in spite of the end of the One-child policy
That the Trend can still be reversed, is unlikely. Already in 2016, tried to Beijing to counteract the easing of the One-child policy, with the help of the Reformer Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s, the growth of the population wanted to restrict. The reason is that Too many children at risk in the General prosperity. The goal of a prosperous society, China has come a long closer. Today, couples are permitted two children. The baby boom, however, remained: In Qingdao, the capital of the population in the province of Shandong rich, for example, were born between January and November 2018, only approximately 81,000 children – 21 percent less than in the previous year.
However, this is not due to the fact that “China’s population seems to be losing Faith in the future”, as recently in a major German newspaper, but the fact that for many young Chinese today, the career plays a more important role. The parents prefer to work and the grandparents do not want to drag more than a grandson. And to have children is getting more and more expensive. The apartments, the health care and education cost more and more money. Therefore, many families focus their attention on a child. As you know it from your Childhood. Because most grew up as single children. Add to this: Since there are hardly any old people’s homes, life care of elderly parents is often the case with their offspring. In addition, the child has a favored policy in an unbalanced ratio between girls and boys. The number of Chinese women of childbearing age decreases. The country-city-and-run is also a factor. Who goes to the city, has no place and no time for children. The result is that In some rural Chinese provinces, the birth rate has plummeted by a third.
The same development as in all industrial countries
Nor is China with about 1.4 billion people as the most populous country in the world, ahead of India with 1.34 billion. That will change soon enough: China’s population will have reached 2029, with 1.49 billion inhabitants, a peak and then inexorably decline. However, this is a normal development. Almost all industrialized countries have you go through all of China’s neighboring countries South Korea and Japan. Nevertheless, these countries are economically very well. This is due to the fact that the Old consume more today than in the past.
DW-columnist Frank Sieren
Its population loss in China could make it through more immigration of betting, similar to the USA, Germany or Australia. Still, the country is relatively homogeneous and isolated, it opens more and more to the world. The “New silk road” could have a positive influence. Today life and work more and more foreigners in China than ever before, more and more also from Africa. Immigration the country of China but not for a long time. As Western Europeans or Africans, the Chinese state is to get citizenship almost impossible.
“The birth of a baby is not only a question of the family, but a process of national rank,” writes the state-run newspaper People’s Daily. The state of sounds carrying, but will not change much. The only way The Chinese government needs to create more incentives for people to balance work and family better with each other. Here, you can learn a lot from Western industrial Nations, for example, when it comes to flexible working hours, paid Parental leave, child benefit Fund, or tax relief for parents. All of this is already being discussed. In the highly competitive society of China however, it is not easy to convince the company of a child-friendly policy. Very important: The state must prevent the company to set then simply less women.
Care of the elderly as a challenge for the future
Great relief might even be a better care for the elderly. In a party Congress speech, Xi Jinping called for a systematic Expansion. To do this, China also needs better insurance. The lucrative services market for elderly care is to be opened according to China’s development and Reform Commission NDRC is soon more for private Chinese, but also foreign investors. Where a nurse is missing, you can be abroad “and” purchased. Young people who choose this career field, will receive financial incentives. Workers can more easily take a vacation, to take care of their parents. In the big cities, a network of neighborly care stations, which are financed by the state. Often the offers are limited to outpatient consultations, blood pressure and fever measurement.
As more and more of the Old supply?
At the same time, the government promotes the development of care robots and machines. But it will take until you come in a big way in the care. However, robots could be a key to the solution of the problem: Because the automation in the factories is much less factory needed workers. In this respect, it is not so bad, if the birth rates fall and the number of workers decreases. Economic growth will not drop. China’s factories of the future could well be able to provide you with much less staff and more growth.
Our columnist Frank Sieren has lived for over twenty years in Beijing.