Again, there is great excitement about a possible merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. But as you look at it: it can’t be, Henrik Böhme sure.
One must only look back two decades. At the time, Dresdner Bank was in the point of view of the action. First, Deutsche Bank had attempted a Takeover of the number Two in the country, and later the Commerzbank – just as unsuccessfully. In the summer of 2001, the Bank was sold for around EUR 30 billion to the insurance giant Allianz. But seven years later, the Alliance had lost the desire, and reached the Dresdner to Commerzbank, which had to just put another nine billion on the table. The only remarkable thing in the common time of the Alliance with Dresdner Bank, was removal a drastic. And the timing was very unfortunate: Shortly after the Takeover of the world financial crisis broke – and Commerzbank had to be supported with billions from the state.
The shambles at the time of the Dresdner Bank, shows astonishing Parallels to what Happened today, when again and again of a possible merger of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. Both German, such as Commerzbank, are just a cheap copy of better times. Although the facades of their high-rise buildings in Frankfurt to Shine, but the entablature beneath is rotten. Taken together, the stock market value is ridiculous € 24 billion. However, it’s not even in the Top 50 of the current world-banks-Charts.
The National Champion? Second League!
The Deutsche Bank is still Germany’s largest money house – ninety in the past decade, 90 (in words: one!) Percent of their market value lost. The stock around is languishing around seven Euro. She has made three years of no profit, only for the past year, you came back on a tiny green branch. Not much is different in the case of Commerzbank. Although it has grown seven-fold profit, which sounds good at first, but it is of course always the question of what level you are coming from. And yet the descent from the German equity index is the Commerz bankers hard in the stomach, so that had its own second-class in writing of the nature, so to speak. Not to forget: In the case of Commerzbank, the German state still has a Hand in the game, belong to him, but 15 percent of the shares.
Henrik Böhme, DW-business editorial
Which brings us to the German policy: making the most of it, as is rumored for months, Worried about the German banking industry. Specifically, the state of the German Bank. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz says that sometimes even out loud: You must be, so the social Democrat, four weeks ago, in London, to be able to do the necessary things, “for the case, something must be done”. Not for nothing, he has made Jörg Kukies, previously Germany, the chief of Goldman Sachs, to be his Secretary of state. A banking Insider as banking Watchdogs in the Ministry of Finance! Not bad.
Now, therefore, the policy of pressure for a merger of the two banks. That is the worst of all the starting positions. Because it is precisely the social Democrat Scholz ought to know of: it is actually to the merger, then the carnage really begins: German Bank together have over 140,000 employees. In first estimates, analysts assume that at least 20,000 if not 30,000 Jobs will be lost. Can the social Democrat Scholz really want?
The unspeakable role of the policy
Now is verify exactly how strong the Supervisory Board of Deutsche Bank prefers such a scenario. Because if so, then something would be done, what is yet inconceivable that The state would participate in the Deutsche Bank. It was once Josef Ackermann, boasted to the times of the world financial crisis of ten years ago, his house (Deutsche Bank) does not need state aid. However, the auxiliary billion decline, had been a cardinal error that has contributed to the Bank delivering today such a pathetic picture.
No, a German Commerzbank is not a good idea, because such a merger will not solve the structural problems. Both houses have just enough to do with themselves, and would be for years with the combination of busy – time, you don’t have. Because the young FinTech companies as well as successful international banks would roll over in Frankfurt emerging German dinosaur outright. As bitter as it sounds: It is only one of the two banks to survive.