Iran’s foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wants to give up his Post. What is the impact of possible withdrawal for Israel and the Iranian nuclear agreement would have, says middle East expert Udo Steinbach in the DW-Interview.
-Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif (li.) and President Hassan Rouhani (file photo)
Question: Iran’s foreign Minister Mohammed Dschwad Sarif has announced on Instagram his resignation, it is still unclear whether President Rouhani accepted this. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote on Twitter: “lucky we got rid of him”. Why is Netanyahu so on Sarifs announced withdrawal be happy?
Because Sarif is always the man of Iran to the international community. Sarif is the conclusion of the nuclear agreement, which has been Israel, Netanyahu, is radically opposed. When this man stepped back now, Netanyahu, that it comes to an exacerbation of tensions between Iran and the international community over the nuclear deal and that the international community is pushed more and more into the Israeli and American camps.
You have indicated that Sarif was always the friendly, moderate face of Iran, he is not a Hardliner. You could not be there on the Israeli side, also will be glad to have someone like him in the foreign Ministry?
The Problem for the Israelis was that Sarif the international community has actually sold something, namely the nuclear deal from the Iranian side. And now the Israelis see as a much clearer fronts. You slowly start to see that in Iran, the hardliners in Power might assume that tensions between Iran and the international community – including between Iran and Israel, also with regard to the missile program. Israel, it seems that it has a much lighter Stand, a militant policy towards Iran to enforce. The Sarif difficult and Netanyahu thinks, it would now be easier.
Benjamin Netanyahu would be happy with Sarifs resignation
What do you think, what effect it would have for Israel if Sarif back really?
At the moment, I would not speculate about what impact will it have on Israel. I think what we are seeing now, regardless of whether the resignation is accepted, or not, the first real wave of shock in Tehran. The tightening of sanctions in November of last year, there has been no clear answer in Iran – neither domestically, nor in terms of foreign policy. And now it might be in the fact that Sarif was stepping down, because he feared that his policy of compensation is not accepted by the West any longer, that he feared that the Radicals might again have more to Say. But this is first and foremost an internal political rejection. The extent to which the transform is to be seen in the next weeks and months. But overall, I think, actually, that the power may represent a takeover by the hardliners of a escalation of the confrontational politics between Iran and the international community, Iran and America, and, above all, Iran and Israel.
What does it mean for the future of the nuclear deal, if the designer of the nuclear agreement, withdraws?
Since it is not, of course, all too well. But the Iranians are waiting to see, of course, still, what the Europeans are doing. And the Europeans have done something that is very Important, as you have been able to drive made a kind of trade agreement with Iran, trade and change. And that is not unimportant for the Iranian society as a whole. Everyone listened to in Iran by the government, must take into consideration, that this agreement is at least theoretically considered for a large part of the Iranian Public in a positive light, even when the moderates in Iran. Who will make the Iranian policy in the next few months, will come to pass that Europeans have shown much good will and that they were very determined, the militant American and Israeli policy.
Middle East Expert Udo Steinbach
That is, the nuclear agreement will continue to be under pressure, but it would not be the end for the agreement, if Sarif would resign.
Exactly. If the Radical should exaggerate in Tehran, however, things in fact, if the pressure and provocations from Tehran to be too big – let’s say the fact that you pursued abroad, the opposition, or that you cover the rocket program and then the Position of the Europeans would be weakened, then the Position of the Moderates would be weakened overall. This could actually mean that the nuclear deal remains on track.
Even if Ruhani Sarifs resignation not want to first of all accept: Could Sarif might be a sacrifice that He must bring in order to stay in the government?
Without a doubt. Ruhani has shown in recent weeks that he is approaching the hard-liners. He wants to bring his term to an end. And he has a further ambition: If the Supreme leader of the revolution dies, then he is toying with the idea of its successor. Rouhani will pursue a policy that gives in at the end, so to speak, of the strongest battalions. And if these are the hardliners – then it is also. And then a man like Sarif actually stays on the track.
Udo Steinbach is a eremitierter scholar of Islam. He was inter alia head of the German Orient-Institute and Director of the GIGA Institute for middle East studies.
The Interview was conducted by Rachel Klein.