During the visit of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday in Moscow a theme is in focus: Syria. According to the announced U.S. troop withdrawal, Russia and Turkey are working on a new strategy.
Presidents Putin and Erdogan (in March 2017)
The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin had already bundled the end of 2016, forces. Together with Iran, they had called at the time, the so-called “Astana-process”, to put a stop to the bloody civil war in Syria to an end.
After the announcement by US President Donald Trump, his soldiers from Syria to deduct, you must reconsider all of the actors, their plans and the new location. On the agenda in Moscow especially in three topics: the creation of a security zone in Northern Syria East of the Euphrates, a possible Operation of the Turkish army in Manbij and the increasing influence of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamists in Idlib are this Wednesday.
In the case of all the topics in the view of Turkey is in a point: When it comes to their attitude towards the Syrian Kurds, founded the PYD and YPG. The “democratic Union party” (PYD) and its military Arm, the YPG, have close Links to the outlawed Kurdish workers ‘ party PKK. The PKK is on the terrorist lists of both Turkey and the EU and the USA.
Distortions between the NATO partners
The government in Ankara sees the PYD and YPG, as the Syrian offshoot of the PKK, and, thus, as terrorist organizations, and different NATO partners, the United States, had to leave in the fight against the terrorist group “Islamic state” (IS) on the Kurdish militias of the YPG. The United States have formed the Kurdish fighters, and armed, was the Turkey, long a thorn in the eye and caused turmoil between the two NATO partners.
Disagree in the Syria conflict: NATO-Partner Trump and Erdogan
The official goal of the PYD and YPG, the establishment of an Autonomous Region in the North of Syria, South of the Turkish border. Turkey intends in precisely this Region a security zone to create. The goal is to displace armed YPG fighters from the area, to create space for Syrian refugees to return from Turkey to their home. Also including many Kurds.
Political scientist Murat Yeşiltaş works for the “Foundation for political, economic and social research” (SETA), with headquarters in Ankara. He estimates that about 300,000 Kurds were forced by the YPG from Northern Syria to escape. President Erdogan had announced in the New York Times that Turkey wants to form in Kurdish-dominated Parts of Northern Syria “local councils”, and intends to allow the Kurds to this process, which had not been in a terrorist fights.
Open to alternative solutions?
From the point of view of experts, US President, Trump and Erdogan agree to create a security zone. Of a 32-kilometre-wide corridor. The establishment and control of the area claimed by Turkey. Whether or the extent to which the United States would agree, is unclear.
Kerim Has, a Moscow-based expert on the Russian-Turkish relations, is convinced that there is collusion between Erdogan and Trump with regard to the fate of the Syrian Kurds. The Turkey would not proceed after a U.S. troop withdrawal against the YPG military. The fighters of the militia would leave the security zone itself, and the direction of the South. For Has, it would be conceivable that at the end of a Syrian Kurdistan, – following the example of the North of Iraq, and with the consent and help of Turkey.
What would keep the government in Moscow by a Turkish-American security zone? Kerim Has refers to the attitude of Russia, that the Assad-Regime in all areas of Syria to regain control is to get. The Moscow plans for the Kurds, a kind of autonomy, but rather cultural. security expert Yeşiltaş is of the opinion that the Assad Regime would not be able to provide in the East of the Euphrates for stability and security. Therefore, Russia would be open for alternative solutions.
Call for help to Assad from Manbij
Another focal point is the city of Manbij, on the Western Bank of the Euphrates. Erdogan has been threatening for months with a military Operation. The reason for this is mainly Arabs inhabited the city was taken over by 2016 from the YPG in the fight against the IS, and – unlike the American promise to Ankara to not leave again. The YPG reached the Western Bank of the river, was at that time a red line for Turkey.
Turkish units in the vicinity of Manbij (in December): Red line
After the announcement of the US withdrawal, the YPG has called on the Assad Regime against a Turkish Operation to help, and several Hundred fighters from the city withdrawn. The al-Assad were stationed troops on the outskirts of Manbij. Russian military police patrolling in the vicinity, some of them together with the YPG militias, and to the Annoyance of the Turkey.
Russia wants to see the city under the control of Assad troops. Expert Kerim Has stressed that the leadership in Moscow would give for a Manbij-Offensive of the Turkey not the green light. If at all, under the condition that the area is given as quickly as possible back to Assad, Has.
Plans for a demilitarized Zone in Idlib
As important as the plans in the East of the Euphrates, and for Manbij for Erdogan to be, as much as Putin would be interested in the fate of Idlibs, said the Moscow expert Kerim Has. Russia and Turkey had signed in September of last year an agreement with the target in the rebel stronghold of, among other things, a demilitarized Zone in Idlib.
Furthermore, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the withdrawal will be decided by “all the radical fighters”. A top priority, especially the retreat of the Al-Qaeda-middle Hajat Tahrir al-sham (HTS). Turkey wanted to prevent a military Operation from the Assad regime in Idlib, and a wave of refugees towards Turkey.
The conditions of the agreement, but could not be for the most part met. The HTS has increased after heavy Fighting against the Turkey-backed rebel groups and their influence. Russia President Putin would remind Erdogan at the interview in Moscow to the conditions of the agreement – according to the Motto “either your the Operation and forcing the HTS from the Region or we do that”, that’s the opinion of the Moscow experts Kerim Has.