The situation seems to be deadlocked: The British Prime Minister May encounter with your proposals, both in the house as well as in the EU on rejection. How goes it, which solutions are conceivable?
The rejection of Theresa may’s recent speech in the British Parliament was unanimous and the reaction from Berlin in the sound rather cool: You expect “that the British government reaches an agreement soon on proposals supported by a majority of the lower house,” said a spokesman of Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, as such a solution might look like? Currently, there are five scenarios:
Scenario 1: keep it up!
For this variant, the Prime Minister, Theresa May. Their strategy is still to play for time and to speculate as to the lower house before the threat of a No-Deal-Brexits relent. Because not only the IMF Christine Lagarde in an unregulated exit a “worst case Scenario”, but also most of the British MPs and the EU. Mays calculus is that the closer the leaving date gets, the more members can make friends with the unpopular Deal, and that the EU makes any further concessions. A classic dangerous game.
Scenario 2: stopping The clock
The EU is exit to 29. March valid. However, the expiration of the end of watch, some reminiscent of the Ticking of a time bomb that can be stopped. Because of the European court of justice had only decided a month ago that the UK could stop the Brexit. The approval of the other EU States is not necessary. The government had to take back then, only the outlet in accordance with article 50 of the EU treaties. The government and the Parliament may draw – well in the consciousness of all the consequences – some, and the article then at some point again. It would be an emergency stop, and yet Theresa May is not ready for it. Alternatively, you May could ask the EU to set a date postponement, but required the consent of Brussels.
Scenario 3: parliamentarians take on the Power
Annoyed by Theresa May, many want to wrest the lower house-the Deputy of the government in control. To do this, the Opposition and EU-friendly Tory MP, a number of Amendments to the “Plan B”, the May before in Parliament had tabled. Next Tuesday will be voted on. But this is only an intermediate step in the search for a majority of the eligible Alternative to the opt-out Deal, the Prime Minister, the last week, with a Two-thirds majority had been rejected. But the same applies here: There are only two months until the outlet.
Scenario 4: A second Referendum or new elections
Under the proposals for a second Referendum. Even Labour leader Jeremy Corbin is apparently of his reservations against a further referendum. However, there is currently no majority in the lower house for such a step: May be feared, a serious crisis of confidence in the population, which is in the Brexit question, as before, divided. And new elections in fear of the ruling Tory like the plague, because they fear losses due to Leaving the Chaos of the massive voice. The only reason you hold on to May as head of government.
Watch the Video 00:53 live Now 00:53 Min. Share
The British annoyed increasingly
Send Facebook Twitter google+ Tumblr VZ Mr. Wong Xing Newsvine Digg
Permalink https://p.dw.com/p/3Bvle
The British annoyed increasingly Brexit-Chaos
Scenario 5: No Deal – the GAU
If there is no agreement among the British members of Parliament, which scenario should be realized, it comes at the 29. March inevitably to the outlet without a contract. Then all the common rules for the European internal market and the customs Union will be null and void. The British Maritime and land border in Northern Ireland checks are built in. The United Kingdom will apply until Further notice as the third state that does not even have a trade agreement with the EU. Thousands of bilateral arrangements from flight traffic over drug approvals, to the right of residence no longer apply. Although there are emergency plans, the consequences would be incalculable.