An exciting year is behind us. An even more exciting stands in front of the door. And every year again the question: Is the boom over? The chances are not bad, says Henrik Böhme.
Crash prophets usually have it easy. Paint year to year, the devil on the wall – and then, when everything collapses, then they cheer: we Have always said it! As you move through the country, to make the people fear, sell their books and prices, if available, their own funds, quasi a life insurance policy.
But if you look at the current state of the global economy, you might actually come to a conclusion: in 2019, the Crash is coming! Unresolved issues, wherever you look. Brexit-the Chaos in Italy, the populists, the trade dispute United States-China. Even if from time to time a light of hope to flash, a coming out, it came back but always the same.
In fact, you don’t want to imagine what will happen if Europe slips into the next recession. The monetary authorities of the ECB have fired their powder, you are crouching in the Draghi-the case of a Zero-interest-rate policy and not come out since. Draghi’s action has prepared the ground for the next crisis.
The harbingers of the downturn are visible
It can already sit up, when the world’s largest asset Manager Blackrock has warned customers to invest in the stock markets of Europe. To big the risks are, to bad the chances for a further upswing. It needs to Worry about is if investors flee back into US treasuries, because the yield in a supposedly secure a return. If, however, the yields of Bonds over longer among those with a shorter maturity, then that is a warning sign. Almost always, if there was such an “inverse yield curve”, was the harbinger of a violent downturn.
Henrik Böhme, DW-business editorial
The biggest Concerns, however, must make one of the world’s mountain of debt. The increased since 2007 (the year in which the world financial crisis, the beginning) of 42 percent to the current (caution: really large number) 237 trillion dollars. Clearly, the Central banks have flooded since the crisis, the markets with money, and so are built with borrowed money, mass-houses, or real estate finances or stock speculation. Investors are not alone on Wall Street with 670 billion dollars in debt; they are speculating with borrowed money. A ticking bomb!
The world today is in debt higher than before the financial crisis, with now (depending on the source) to 225 percent (International monetary Fund), or 245 percent (Bank for international settlements), the world’s economic output. To clarify: In the Eurozone, you can get in Trouble if the debt is above the 60 percent mark. The global debt rises faster than economic growth. The upswing of the past few years – he was alone purchased on credit.
The bill is ready
When this bubble bursts (and it will, without a doubt), then everyone can be happy who has his ducks in a row. For all others, it’s time to Buckle up! Because one thing is clear: the highly indebted countries will be able to lace-up not billions of dollars in rescue packages. And Zero-interest-rate Central bankers like Mario Draghi will be able to lower interest rates more to stimulate the economy.
The storm is on the way, the shelters but more than decrepit. On the basis of the United States, where the effect of the Trump tax gifts will abate, it will catch Europe. The Americans will pay a high price for you to the fault, like there’s no Tomorrow. The Europeans will have to pay for it, you numb the good economic development of recent years. But the crisis, the Europeans have made it their home.
But the big Crash is coming because we are now in the year 2019? And if Yes, what day of the week? Ask the Crash-prophet: can you say exactly!