It was a very bad year for the German social Democrats. In surveys, they are only 15 percent. Threatens the SPD? Or is she still be saved? From Berlin, Sabine Kinkartz.
Wherever you look in Europe, social Democrats in many countries in a difficult position. In Austria, the SPÖ 2017 was voted out from the government. In France and the Netherlands, the social Democrats took landslide losses and achieved only single-digit results. Even in the former social democratic model country of Sweden, the labor party 2018 cut as bad as ever.
Also for the German Enjoyed it for some time on the downhill. At the last Bundestag election in September 2017, the SPD fell by more than five percentage points to 20.5 percent. From this result, you can dream in the meantime, however, just yet. According to opinion polls would currently choose to just 15 per cent of the Federal citizens of the SPD. In November, it was only 14 percent. A large majority indicates, you know, what the SPD. The party had no message, no clear points of view.
Govern and renew: The balancing act doesn’t work
SPD Leader Andrea Nahles make such statements difficult. On assuming office in April 2018, they had promised the party a lot. With a dual strategy: they wanted to create the back rise: on the one hand, the SPD programmatically re-align and on the other hand, with the CDU and the CSU in the government’s good work. But the balancing act between the left image and the search for a Compromise in the government is not working. Finally, the SPD took in Bavaria and Hesse at the Landtag elections outright disastrous results.
Frustrated and exhausted: SPD-Boss Nahles after the state election in Bavaria
Maybe also due to the fact that the social Democrats lost their real group of voters for years. Historically, the SPD was always the party of the ordinary worker. For decades fought the social Democrats, together with the trade unions for improvements in labour law, for more education and more participation. With Success. Today, every second German part of the traditional middle class.
Your political home see these people now but not in the SPD, but in the case of the Union, the Greens and the FDP. Those who live in precarious conditions, or from the descent threatened, feels, chooses, in the meantime, rather, the left party or the right-wing populist AfD.
With his back to the wall
The failures of the past few months have SPD Leader Andrea Nahles leave traces. In the party she has lost restraint. But even their worst critics of terror is currently still in front of it to push you out of the office. Only the heads do not interchange, the bring much, as the past shows. Ten Chairman, has worn the SPD since 1999. For comparison, Angela Merkel was 18 years CDU-Chairman.
In order to curb the frustration, wants to party leader Nahles speed up the renewal process now. Instead of discussing until the end of 2019, should be taken at the end of January the balance sheet and a new SPD rate to be decided. On the wishlist at the very top of a “comprehensive welfare state reform”, the core of which is supposed to be the farewell of the “Hartz IV”. Those labour market reform, launched by the SPD itself in 2003. The you quarrels, but ever since.
Campaign in the SPD: “away with Hartz IV”
The unemployed and the poor should get more money. Anyone who violates conditions imposed by the Agency, for example, to be late for an appointment with his Advisor, should not be punished so quickly financially. On the Agenda for the pension and the minimum wage should be raised. In a government coalition with the Union of such receivables will not be implemented, however. Even with the new CDU party leadership.
New elections would be a Disaster
Realistically, this may mean only that the social democratic party must leave the government. However, the party leader Andrea Nahles definitely don’t want to. The coalition would burst now, then it would inevitably come to new elections. For the SPD it would be in the current survey a Disaster values. Nahles needs more time. She hopes to be able to do the splits between renewal and Govern at least until the late fall of 2019. Then the great coalition wants to draw anyway, mid-term review, and see whether the Alliance contributes to two more years.
Cheerful and colourful: The SPD wants to make a new image
Until then, the SPD Chairman hopes to get through the new program more popular with the voters. And with the power of positive thinking. The SPD had to act optimistic, decided by the party Executive. “We rely on the force of cohesion,” said Andrea Nahles cheerful, as occurred recently with the party leadership, broad-smiling in the Foyer of the Willy-Brandt-house. “We are convinced that in our country nothing is missing as a political force that stands like no other for social cohesion, and that is the SPD.”
In the Opposition?
But the cheerful facade is an act of desperation. Because Nahles know for a fact that your strategy can go wrong. If the process of renewal of the SPD, with clear decisions for more social state ends, the leadership in the coalition but cannot implement, then the power of the SPD in the result, only less credible.
The SPD is stuck in a Dilemma, and you will have to 2019 to decide. For a continuation of the Grand coalition with the Union or left political course. However, the party could credibly only from the Opposition control. And who knows? Maybe you can forge a new left Alliance. With the left party and perhaps the Greens.