2019 election year in Africa, with South Africa and Nigeria, the weights of two hard to the polls. But there and elsewhere on the continent, experts do not expect that there will be big changes.
With the Slogan “Choose, instead of fight,” has rapped Nigeria’s music icon 2face Idibia on the popularity scale to the top. Especially in the case of young people, he can score points. The Rapper announced the Slogan not only on stage but also in real life. 2face Idibia supports the campaigns of various youth organizations for peaceful elections in 2019. Many Nigerians are hoping for, because the fear of violence is great. Because in the previous election, there was fighting again and again to violence.
The election in February could be just: experts predict a head-to-head race between incumbent Muhammadu Buhari and his main Challenger Atika Abubakar. In the case of his re-election for 2015 ruling Buhari would remain another four years in office. He is 75 years old and marked by illness. His Challenger, Atiku Abubakar, is already 71 years old. The former Vice-President and Buhari-Trusted is accused of corruption. But to Buhari, there is criticism: “He has not managed to stabilize Nigeria,” says Sophia Moestrup, regional Director of the non-governmental organization NDI.
Concerns about violence in Nigeria
The Buhari government care little about the concerns of young people, criticized Moestrup in the DW-Interview. Two-thirds of the population are young people. Lack of education, high unemployment and lack of prospects, drive them into the arms of terrorist groups like Boko Haram. “The policy offer of the government is very low,” says Rinaldo Depagne, an employee of the think tank ICC in a DW Interview. “The young population is ruled by old men who struggle to understand the world of today.”
Nigeria President Muhammadu Buhari in the
An end to the violence wave in the country does not seem to be in sight: The Islamist Boko Haram militia in the North-East would again say more, Depagne. Also, the conflict between cattle herdsmen and farmers in the middle of the country will go in 2019. “In the past year about 1300 people died in this bloody battle for more Land,” says Depagne.
No political awakening in Senegal – but the economy rises
The neighbouring country of Senegal is stable. Here, too, is elected in the spring. “There is little doubt as to the re-election of President Macky Sall,” says Sophia Moestrup. Because the choice for President to the best possible time: The economy in Senegal, it goes well.
This Trend could also continue in the coming years. Starting in 2021, the country wants to encourage Oil and Gas. This could boost the economy further. As before, the majority of the population of Senegal live in poverty. In order to improve their Situation, the experts argue, the infrastructure of the country in the coming years to further expand.
It was positive that the civil society in Senegal and Nigeria was very active, and the politicians wanted to hold them responsible, says an expert Moestrup. Well, that, of the 15 presidents in West Africa 14 not longer than two terms of office, ruled. Togo is an exception.
Also, Senegal’s President Macky Sall is hoping for a second term
Oppositions are too weak in the South
Also in southern Africa 2019 elections, but also bring little change. In many countries of the former liberation govern movements that are likely to continue to remain in Power. “A major challenge for the Region is that none of the opposition have formed movements that cover the entire political spectrum,” says Paul Graham, of the human rights organization “Freedom House” in South African economic metropolis of Johannesburg.
With especially a lot of tension observers look to South Africa. There come are held on a year – to-date legislative and presidential elections, the exact date is still unclear. Many experts believe that the ruling African national Congress (ANC) will win the vote – but with losses. Already no longer the former party of Nelson Mandela is struggling with falling popularity values. The new President and ANC Chairman Cyril Ramaphosa tried to brace themselves against it. “He has achieved some success, to liberate the state from the exploitation by corrupt forces under Ex-President Jacob Zuma. But within the party he meets with great resistance,” says Graham.
Land reform is not an election issue
Ramaphosa also promises that the land reform further. Even decades after the end of Apartheid, is still a majority of the country is owned by white South Africans. By an Amendment to the Constitution in the future, the Country should be expropriation without compensation possible. However, it is unclear how many voters the ANC so that can win back. Graham: “most of The studies show that for many South Africans, not the land reform is the decisive factor for whom they give their vote. They are rather busy with Jobs, health and safety.”
The EFF party in South Africa is pushing for a radical land reform
The also Jakkie Cilliers of South Africa “Institute for security studies, confirmed”. The majority of white voters were against the land reform. “But the Reform is an attempt by the ANC, the Radical of the carpet under the floor, to pull down, and to take the Initiative in their own hands,” said Cilliers to the DW. Radical that are the party of “Economic freedom fighters” under the leadership of Julius Malema, which uses populist themes. “Most South Africans give Ramaphosa the benefit of the doubt,” says Cilliers.
Politically a new Wind allow
Also, the government of the neighbouring country of Namibia has initiated a land reform, but the programs are vague, says Cilliers. Politically, there is no doubt that it is The SWAPO government, under President Hage Geingob will remain in Power. He was been very consistent in the implementation of reforms intended to improve to have the life of the poor Namibians. Opposition parties had little chance to assert themselves. There is also little pressure from the population.
Gloomy prospects for many of the observers for Mozambique, see. The poor country sits on a huge mountain of debt and is threatened according to Cilliers of increasing terrorist attacks: Islamist groups fighting in the North, to influence. There is also the militant Opposition RENAMO has its base and finds in the arms of great support. In the elections in October 2019, with President Filipe Nyusi to the passage of the government’s party, FRELIMO, for the second Time, but the approval for RENAMO leader Ossufo Momade. “But a change in the political landscape is also evident there,” says Cilliers.