All of the experts were before the US elections in 2016, agreed that Donald Trump would have no Chance. Only Allan Lichtman knew better. For 2019, the historian expects Impeachment against Trump.
Donald Trump 2019 will behave differently than in the past? Probably not. Will change its policy in 2019? Also, the is hardly to be expected. But could strain the now the Democrats controlled the house of representatives, having regard to the results of the investigation by the special investigator Robert Mueller, impeachment proceedings against Trump? “I think it is more likely than that such a procedure is not,” says Allan Lichtman, a political scientist at the American University in Washington.
The historian, who said in the past 30 years, the outcome of presidential elections, correctly predicted, was a media star, as he predicted, contrary to all other estimates – early on trump’s victory in the US elections of 2016.
Now Lichtman is convinced that the President has to fight from 2019 and for the Rest of his term in office to be in office. A fight he will probably lose.
Allan Lichtman: “Trump is in great danger from the Mueller report.”
Until now, Trump was able to put on a Republican-controlled Congress that kept him from impeachment. However, with the mid-term elections in early November, the signs have completely turned, the Democrats have now in the house of representatives on 30 more seats. It is enough but a majority of a single voice for a procedure. For a long time the subject of Impeachment theory was, now it could be reality.
Impeachment is always more likely
On 3. January 2019 the house of representatives gathered for the first Time under the new leadership of the Democrats. For a long time, Top Democrats had all of the demands for Impeachment of the so-called Anti-Trump-resistance movement played down, and the desire of some members to a tougher attitude towards Trump. But now the pressure could rise, to act. “If Mueller brings a couple of solid evidence against Trump, will require the democratic base a prosecution,” predicts Lichtman. “I think Trump is in great danger from the Mueller report.”
Not the Democrat, Nancy Pelosi would be after a successful Impeachment of the US President….
Lichtman is not sure that Mueller has a lot of information in Hand, the proof of the relations between Trumps inner circle and Russia. What would prove a Manipulation of the elections of 2016, and thus an attack on democracy. “I can’t imagine that Mueller invested all this work, then to come to any result. I tend to calculate with some very serious findings in respect of Russia’s support for the Trump campaign.”
What the Republicans are doing?
But Lichtman is not only convinced that there will be proceedings against Trump. The political scientist also believes that it is very possible that the US President is removed from office – what many other experts believe that it is still unlikely. To do this, it would have to be a two-thirds majority in the Republican-dominated Senate. A significant number of Republicans would have to vote to overthrow the President.
“This scenario is not so unrealistic as it might sound,” explains Lichtman. There were not only the incriminating information from the Mueller report, but also Trumps policy, which calls for slowly also of the Republicans to take their toll, as the Midterm elections have shown. In the presidential and congressional elections of 2020, not more crashing, could turn away many Republican members of Trump.
… but the current Republican Vice-President Mike Pence
Mike Pence, not Nancy Pelosi
“Trump could lose his office if Republicans fear, with him to go down,” says Lichtman. “You are not a Trump to be loyal. If the Republicans fear of losing their base and the President responsible for it, could you let him fall.” Influential Republicans would watch the further development very well and their support for Trump?
“The Republicans have supported Richard Nixon until the evidence was so overwhelming that he was a huge burden for them”, explains the scientist with a look into the past, “I say that Trump will not survive, but I think it unlikely.” For one thing, it should not be forgotten in all the speculation, is Allan light Mans conclusion: “If Trump needs to go, then the Democrat Nancy Pelosi the new President, but Mike Pence is not. So, someone that many Republicans in Congress prefer to Trump!”