According to the announced withdrawal of the USA from Syria, the war could go in the year 2019 in a new round. Although the Assad government is sitting halfway in the saddle. But now, old players with a new force pushing for the Plan.
Ruined city: a view of Aleppo
U.S. President Donald Trump, it was announced shortly before Christmas: The troops of his country will pull out of Syria. The first preparations for the retreat are already underway.
For Syria, this is likely to have significant consequences. After the Power and areas of Influence, in particular, of international actors – Russia, the USA, Iran and Turkey – were determined, they could be significantly in motion. The US left a vacuum that is likely to try to fill the above-mentioned States immediately.
Turkey is interested in the current state, their sphere of influence, especially in the North of the country, in the predominantly Kurdish-populated areas, to expand. Iran, in turn, can be expected to try to its influence around Damascus, but also its presence as close as possible to the Syrian-Israeli border to expand. Russia will, however, focus on its presence in selected locations, such as the naval port of Tartus. The extent to which Moscow will participate in the fight against not defeated IS a, is open. In addition, it can be assumed that Russia will try, from Syria, from its influence in the Middle East in General, to expand. Open is, like Israel, the new location will respond. An Iranian presence as saw on its borders of the Jewish state is likely to allow.
The Problem of the militias and irregular fighters
Open is also, as the government of Assad with the irregular fighters, to which, so far, has set. Thousands of Iranian revolutionary guards, Iraqi and Afghan militias and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia have been fighting for years on the side of the government.
Fought: rebel in Idlib
During this time, says Bente Scheller, head of the Beirut office of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation, have made the government especially in the light of experience, The clampdown on the insurgents was not worthwhile. This principle, expected Scheller, will apply the government in the coming year. “Due to the past experiences you will see in the future, no need to come to the negotiating table. Just because she thinks she’s on the road to Victory, it will continue exactly the strategy that has proved successful so far.”
The uncertain fate of Idlib
This is likely to apply especially in the province of Idlib. In from the Syrian military enclosed Region of two to three million people, according to UN estimates, there are more than 99 percent of civilians. There are many from other parts of the country, who had fled rebel groups, some of them jihadist are but also. The storm on this part of the country remained, in spite of multiple threats.
Originally, the Turkey had used to disarm the fixed jihadist militias. The success of the company is not had in the past. Because their fighter had previously had simply no reason to disarm, says Bente Scheller. “Why should you give up something without receiving consideration, to be able to such guarantees, unarmed from the city to deduct or to be a credible Amnesty?” Therefore, expected Scheller, is likely to put the crisis to Idlib for so long, as the Syria crisis as a Whole will not be solved.
Refugees as a political weapon
The power of the Situation to Idlib for Europe explosive. Russia, – said in a comment of the news channel “Al Jazeera”, in the crisis in Syria, repeatedly played the refugee card. “Russia has deliberately attacked civilians in Opposition-held areas, a refugee flow in the direction of Turkey and Europe on the trail. So you wanted to force these countries to rethink their support of the armed opposition forces.”
Abused as a means of exerting political pressure: Syrian refugees
In this way, Russia had been a powerful lever in the Hand: The Refugee flows to Europe have changed the political landscape of the continent significantly. In nearly all countries, the party attracted right-wing in the parliaments.
The refugee card, expected to Bente Scheller is expected to play off Russia and Syria in Idlib. “If there was a military offensive, would be Idlib, in principle, the card, with the help of the Regime, and Russia to Europe under the most pressure. And I’m sure you will do just that.”
Iran: here to stay
However, the means by which the Syrian government and their Russian protection Idlib under their control, want to get Syria will politically never be the country that it was until the outbreak of the uprisings in 2011. For Syria provides, of all things, the other the protection of Iran.
A report in the magazine “Foreign Policy”, according to more than 2,000 Iranian soldiers died in the Fighting in Syria claimed the lives of. In addition, the country had invested up to 30 billion US-dollars in the fight to Syria. International pressure the country to withdraw, is expected to bow to the leadership in Tehran, it is hardly expected the sheet. “After such a massive investment of Iran is committed to the long-term strategic benefits to reap, the country has to offer – even if this life in the short term, continued loss of human and financial costs.”
Set the tone in Syria: Russian President Vladimir Putin (li.) and his Iranian counterpart, Hate Rouhani (Mi.). To the right of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This strategy should provide in particular after the withdrawal of the United States for tensions in the Region, expected to Scheller. Israel see in the Advance of Iran a threat to its national security. Therefore, it will not hesitate to continue to oppose the presence of Iran. As the conflict-driven, be open. “Because even though there were warnings, and Israel has demonstrated share with military intervention in the country, that it will not tolerate an Iranian presence, has solidified the Iranian presence. Also a much larger personal involvement of Iran in comparison to the previous year.”
The war in Syria may be decided with a view to the national level. The international Dimension is still open. You should leave the country in the year 2019, in many Parts of not come to rest.