With the withdrawal of its troops, the Americans left a dangerous gap in Syria, the SWP scientist Guido Steinberg. The winner of the situation were clearly the Assad Regime, Turkey and Iran.
US troops are no longer, as in the middle of February in Hajīn, Syria fighting
Mr Steinberg, according to the US President Donald Trump, the IS is defeated in Syria – is that actually so?
Guido Steinberg: The IS has in Iraq and Syria over the territory. As an underground organization, he is still present. The US-led coalition has spoken in the past few months, from 4000 to 6000 man that can lead the IS in Iraq and Syria is still in the field. This shows, in my view, the strength of the organization. Is not defeated, the IS definitely.
What is the withdrawal of the U.S. troops for Syria means and powers-that-Assad?
The most important consequence is that the Assad Regime can claim the deduction as a great success. Assad and his followers have given in the past few years, as the goal of all of Syria to occupy and without any exceptions. At the taking of the Kurdish areas in the North and East, the Americans have prevented the Regime. If the US is no longer present, the Regime is definitely the Chance to win again in the next years the control over the entire territory of the country.
How do you view this new situation?
The immediate negative consequence is that the Autonomous Kurdish area in the East in jeopardy. There was some stability and security, and Kurdish fighters have made sure that the IS military could be weakened. The American release may be a very important ally in the fight against the jihadists to launch. This will ensure that the fight against is will in the next few years will be much more difficult.
Gudio Steinberg works at the science and politics Foundation in Berlin
What are the benefits to Turkey of the Situation?
For Turkey, the new Situation is as positive as it is for the Assad Regime. President Erdogan has announced in recent months that he wants to attack the Autonomous Kurdish zone to the East of the Euphrates. Turkey is rightly of the opinion that it is the dominant Kurdish party, the PYD to be an integral part of the Turkish PKK. Therefore, Turkey has taken already in the spring of 2018, the Region Afrin – the real stronghold of the PYD. It is quite possible that we will experience in the next time a Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdistan.
And how plays the position of Iran in the hands?
I think, in Tehran yesterday, a festive mood spread. The Iranians have the declared aim is to expel US imperialism from the Region. Every American troop withdrawal is welcomed in Tehran, out of ideological reasons. The Iranians can now contribute to the allied Assad Regime also brings the East of the country back under control – and then it will be so that Iran’s allies dominate a nearly continuous territory between Tehran and Beirut. In addition to the Assad Regime and Turkey, the Iranians are an important winner.
Can calm down this new situation in the Region?
It is quite possible that the Syrian state will be in the coming years, something more stable. However, we are far from a stabilization of Syria, and adjacent areas. We have on the one hand, a Regime that is conceivable to be weak and its military suffers from a shortage of staff. We don’t have state actors like the Islamic state, operate in the underground. As a result of the American withdrawal, the danger of a conflict between the Syrian Kurds and the Assad Regime is growing. There is the danger of a conflict between the Kurds and Turkey. It is unclear how the Syrian government will react, if in fact, Turkish troops invade East of the Euphrates. The signs point rather to a new Phase of conflict.
Good partners: U.S. President Donald Trump (l) and Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO Meeting in July
What is the USA important: to improve The relations with Turkey or the influence of Iran?
The US government relies on a radical anti-Iranian policies. Therefore, it was expected in the past few months that the Americans stay longer in Syria, full of Iranian-Syrian-Russian victory to delay there, at least. That’s why this retreat is so surprising. I do not believe, however, that the anti-Iranian orientation of the American policy changes. It is a constant since the election campaign of 2016. It is not only that the Trump Administration sees the Syrian Kurds as a Partner for such a policy. In addition, for the USA, the ratio for Turkey is more important than the Kurds.
What a Signal to the world the withdrawal of troops?
The most important Signal is mainly political. President Trump has always advertised that it focuses on the United States and that he wants to pull troops out of the world. He shows again that he goes about with great ruthlessness. This approach should not surprise us but The Americans have always said that the relationship with Turkey is more important than the relationship with the Syrian PKK. You do this now, true. This is very ugly, because the Kurds have fought in Syria, the IS, but so is international policy.
Who can fill the gap left by the American troops in Syria?
The Syrian Regime and Turkey. I’m firmly convinced that both will try to control at least over parts of North-East Syria. I also assume that the Kurdish Experiment in autonomy in North-Eastern Syria has failed with the withdrawal of the Americans and the Syrians, the benefit Iranians and maybe also the Turks.
There is no other Western partners that could step in in Syria?
There is no. None of the Western powers could fill the gap, the tear, the Americans in Syria. I suppose that the American air force will continue to patrol, but it is not conceivable that the British or the French will now start to defend the Syrian PKK.
How reliable is the USA in the Region?
It depends on who you ask. Saudi Arabia is expected to be in the last few months, very impressed by the reliability of its American allies. The allies the US had in the time of President Obama’s great concern that the US could pull back. This concern has not disappeared, but it seems like it’s my Trump Administration with their anti-Iranian strategy seriously – and that is for States such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel are particularly important. I believe that this strategy is the Trump Administration will also shape the next two years in the Region, regardless of whether American troops are stationed in Syria or not. Only the Kurds in Syria will take the Americans to this retreat for a long bad.
Guido Steinberg is working at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik (SWP) in Berlin. The scientist is part of the research group near/Middle East and Africa.
The Interview was conducted by Jennifer Wagner.