In the UK, there are increasing before the decisive Brexit vote in Parliament, with warnings that the economic consequences of a tough EU-exit. Especially dramatic the scenario, the Bank of England.
A completely disordered farewell to the European Union (EU) would hit the UK, according to the Bank of England (BoE) harder than the global financial crisis ten years ago – and would trigger the worst recession since the Second world war. Although the Central Bank considers that this scenario is not most likely, but “plausible”. “Our task is not to hope for the Best, but prepare for the worst,” said BoE chief Mark Carney. The London government warned of losses for the case of the EU-negotiated Plan of Prime Minister Theresa May will be rejected.
At the request of deputies, the Central Bank has calculated the impact of such a Brexit without any regulation: The British economy would shrink accordingly, within approximately one year to eight percent. In the financial crisis, it was 6.25 per cent. Reasons for the strong losses in such a Chaos-Brexit, the loss of confidence of financial markets in British institutions, as well as serious delays in delivery due to new border controls would be. Unemployment would therefore rise to 7.5 percent, and only under the highest level during the financial crisis remain, because Workers EN masse, Britain would leave.
British banks stress test
The Central Bank has asked the money houses of the country, to make arrangements for this Extremely-development – and-attesting to the now resistance: The British banking system was strong enough to be able to even in such a case, households and firms with sufficient credit supply. The result was a stress test of the industry. “No Bank must increase its capital cushion,” said the BoE. The Central Bank had studied the capital strength of the following seven banks: Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Nationwide Building Society, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Santander UK and Standard Chartered.
Warns against the consequences of a hard Brexit: BoE chief Mark Carney
A less drastic Form of an EU-exit without agreement would be a more functioning cross-border traffic, but, among other things, new duties would be levied. The BoE expects a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) to three per cent. Only last week, Carney warned that an unregulated EU exit, the economy could shatter strong as the oil shock in the 1970s. Carney was behind the May negotiated Treaty with the EU. This nearly 600-page exit agreement was signed at the weekend in Brussels. If May gets however, in the British house of Commons a majority, is unclear.
Your government itself forecasts a significantly stronger impairment of the economic recovery before if may’s Plan at the time of the vote on may 11. December fails. In this case, the GDP would fail after 15 years was 7.7 percent lower than in the EU. The Plan should be adopted, however, is likely to be the economic performance after 15 years of 2.1 percent lower. In the years before the Brexit Referendum in mid-2016, and the UK economies is one of the fastest growing economies in Europe.
May confirmed her Plan is the best Option for the country. The analysis will show that the economy is not strong and will continue to grow. The country will not be in the future poorer. A second Brexit Referendum, they refused. “It is important that the vote of the British people is implemented.” Critics of the EU exit, hope to be able to with a second vote for the Brexit still prevent. Finance Minister Philip Hammond told the BBC, from a purely economic point of view, an EU-whereabouts would be best for the island. This Plan May come close.
tko/stu (rtr, dpa)