In Istanbul, the presidents of Turkey, Russia and France, as well as the German Chancellor come together to discuss the future of Syria. Germany has clear goals and a lot to offer.
For Syria, anti-government: Anti-Asssad-Demonstration in Hazzanu, near the city of Idlib, September 2018
Ahmad Taher Mustafa was lucky. Just a day after a criminal Gang had kidnapped him in the middle of October near Afrin, managed a civilian Brigade to free him. Physically unharmed, was able to return the nine-year-old student to his family.
The benign course of the kidnapping throws a spotlight on the precarious security situation in Northern Syria. Particularly worrying, was the fact that among the kidnappers also former members of the rebel group “Free Syrian army” (FSA), writes the policy in the Middle East involved in the Internet magazine “Al-Monitor,” with reference to an undisclosed source.
That have, of all things, turned some of their members who had supported the uprising against the Assad government in the name of freedom of motifs in the first years at a Central location, in a criminal group, shows how the almost eight years of continuous war has their motives, and their ethical attitude. The battles have transformed the character of at least some of the troops of the FSA – irrespective of the fact that there were also members of the FSA, the boy freed.
Concern for security and stability
However, not only in the North, in other regions of Syria, it is still bad security. Delicate the situation is, in particular, around the jihadist groups in Idlib Region dominated. The Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, remember, to storm the Region, but reluctant to the actors before the bloodshed, especially among civilians, which would bring a military reconquest.
Arbitrariness and robbery: Arab militias in the looting after taking the Afrin, March 2018
The Situation in Idlib is likely to be at the centre of the international Syria summit this Saturday, at the in addition to the Turkey, Russia, and France, Germany will also participate. As another possible topic of a new Syrian Constitution or the establishment of a constituent Assembly.
Germany’s commitment for ceasefire
For Germany is expected at the Meeting, the issue of the refugees are in the foreground, says Kristian Brakel, head of the Istanbul office of the Heinrich-Böll-Foundation. “Germany wants to ensure, together with Turkey, does not still more Syrians are on the way to Turkey. Already now Turkey is home to over three million Syrian refugees. Therefore, there were in Turkey and, indirectly, in Germany, there is considerable concern that it would lead to a military Offensive on Idlib.”
Both countries, Turkey as well as Germany, in the issue of the refugees under pressure. In the East of Turkey, it’ll be because of the refugees to riots, says Brakel in the DW-Interview. In Germany, however, this played not only in the Bundestag election in September 2017, a significant role. Also in the state elections, it has a meaning – even though it is not addressed by most parties in the election campaign open. “Both sides – Germany and Turkey – are keen to keep the Situation at least stable, so that no further movements of people fleeing is to be expected,” says Brakel.
Scene from Idlib, September 2018
The role of a new Constitution
Indirectly with the debate around Idlib, the question of the new Constitution is associated with it. It is also an important Signal both nationally and internationally. Your orientation is likely to play for many Refugees a crucial role in the question of whether they will return eventually to Syria, or prefer to stay in a foreign country. Similarly, you are likely to have an impact on how quickly the country will bring peace and an end to the fighting and stabilize.
Seven Western and Arab States, including Germany, had called in September of this year, the United Nations, to bring as soon as possible the drafting of a Constitution for the civil war country Syria. For this purpose, a Committee with representatives from all sides should be formed, it said in a statement. The goal is to create the basis for free and fair elections under UN supervision, in which all eligible Syrians – including the refugees – are allowed to participate. An international drafting of the Constitution, has rejected the Syrian government so far. This was a purely Syrian matter, had declared the Syrian foreign Minister Walid al-Muallim.
Russia: the cost of war
Syria’s protection, Russia called for an alone of the Syrians to timely Constitution. However, the Russian middle East expected to be expert Taimour Dwida, could show the government in Moscow is quite the Opposite. “The Kremlin wants to end its military operations in Syria. The burden on the Russian economy is massive; also, the war improved relations with the United States and Israel in the way,” says Dwida in the DW-Interview.
The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad rely on allies:
And yet, something of this talk, that Russia is not likely to go into the question of the Syrian Constitution, the Western countries on fundamental opposition, says Kristian Brakel: “The Russians look forward to the reconstruction of the country. You want to, of course, that other countries participate. It comes to many billions of dollars over a period of perhaps 15 to 20 years. This money neither Russia nor Iran have. The Gulf States are not yet ready to participate.”
The Weakness Of Assad’s
That’s why Russia is dependent on Germany for direct financing. On the other, but to also advertise in the West for this funding. “The Russians certainly have an interest to have Germany on Board,” says Kristian Brakel.
Already in the war could hold on to the Syrian government only with the help of their allies. It seems that you have not even in the discussions on the emerging cease-fire is the book in the Hand. Bashar al-Assad stands at the head of a government that has military and political autonomy will be lost.
Watch the Video 04:37 live Now 04:37 Min. 
Share
Life in ruins
Send Facebook Twitter google+ Tumblr VZ Mr. Wong Xing Newsvine Digg
Permalink https://p.dw.com/p/36k4C