Nuclear war in Europe – that is in dispute between Putin and Trump the INF Treaty. Between the fronts of Central and Eastern Europe is torn – should we keep it with Putin? Or with Trump?
US President, Donald Trump wants the INF Treaty, terminate the agreement with Moscow in 1987, all medium-range missiles from Europe. It is as if the 1980s of the last century would back be Reminiscent of the NATO double-track decision of 12. December 1979, made from 1983, the stationing of American Pershing missiles and Cruise Missiles against the then Russian SS20 missiles. A third world war, it seemed, would be atomic, and in Europe. Accordingly, the relief was, as both sides in 1987, the INF Treaty signed.
In Germany and in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, has very different memories of that time. In Germany, there was a loud “peace movement” with the “Easter marches” and mass demonstrations. Only no American medium-range missiles! In the Russian-occupied Eastern Europe was celebrated by the Communist Propaganda, but many people in Poland or Hungary shook secretly the heads. From the West, it was hoped, the liberation from the Russian yoke, not cowardly whining.
What is a contract when only one side respects him?
Now that seems to be leaving again. Cautionary voices will not be heard from Germany to endanger the peace. “Devastating decision”, – stated from the foreign office. It is then, as now, Russia, the provoked. At that time, the SS20, which is today the 9M729 “Novator”, an alleged short-range missile, but it could have, according to American findings, a range of up to 3400 kilometers, and according to Polish findings recently in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad stationed. The violation of the INF Treaty. NATO sees it that way. So what is a contract if only one side respects?
The American hardness in the 80s led to the success of The INF Treaty, was ultimately the consequence of the NATO double-track decision. In Central and Eastern Europe, is convinced that hardship is the only language that Russia understands (but, unfortunately, the only language that speaks in the rich, soft, Germany). Poland has “understanding” for Trumps INF-decision-making.
Warsaw upgrades against Russia, that in 2017, more than ten billion dollars, would like to get a US Division permanently to Poland, and I had to make one of the strongest armies in the EU. Poland and Romania have allowed – one complains in Moscow – the stationing mobile American MK 41 vertical launch systems for missiles. This can also be used for the launch of Cruise Missiles used. So medium-range missiles, the INF Treaty prohibits. This, in turn, is a response to the deployment of Russian Iskander missile systems to Kaliningrad. These systems seem to be for the Start of the new Novator missiles.
Russia has stationed Iskander missiles in its enclave of Kaliningrad
The law of the jungle in the policy
In the midst of this new Cold war, Central and Eastern Europe is torn apart. While Poland and Romania, as well as the most vulnerable Baltic republics rely on a policy of toughness and military strength, you can see it in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia pragmatic. You will feel of Russia is less at risk than the North Europeans. You want to do with Putin business.
But a new age was dawning, recognize all of them. The law of the jungle has returned in the policy, and in such times, you need a strong military. Everywhere in Central and Eastern Europe will be upgraded. According to surveys conducted by the peace research Institute, Sipri, the military expenditures grew in Central and Eastern Europe in 2017, to twelve percent in Western Europe (including Germany) was only 1.7 percent. Even Hungary, whose army is laughably weak, want to give, more recently, in the framework of the “Zrinyi 2026″program “powerful armed forces”. To be of Airbus – France and Germany in a constant dispute over the future of the EU also complacent, has bought two military transport A319 and 20 attack helicopters H145 ordered. The troop strength should be increased from 30,000 to 37,000. The obsolete T 72 battle tanks to replace by more modern types, all of which is not yet known. An indigenous weapons industry is to be established.
During the visit of the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, both sides agreed on an intensive cooperation in the defence industry. It is not only Russia. In the extreme case, the impacts are even conceivable between Ukraine and Hungary in the Carpatho-Ukraine, where in recent months the Hungarian minority a crisis has developed. In Eastern Europe you do not brace itself against the danger of military confrontation – but who is against whom, is not always clear.
Boris kálnokys, Born in 1961, reported as the Hungary correspondent for the “world” and other German media. He is the author of the book “ancestors ‘ land” (Droemer 2011), in which he goes on the trail of his ancestors, – among others, of the k. u. K. foreign Minister, Gustav kálnokys.