According to a Bertelsmann study, every third German over 18 years with populist positions sympathizes. However, with social issues and a Pro-Europe course de, Trend counter could.
The Germans admire more and more with the political Extremes. A good 30 percent of the election to be legitimate tend to be, according to the latest “populism barometer” of a populist politics, both on the right as on the left side. At the same time, the proportion of those who are clearly unpopul istic has decreased, compared to 2017 by four percentage points. They now account for just under 33 percent. The Rest can be neither the one nor the other side can be clearly allocated.
For the “populism barometer” of the Bertelsmann Foundation, in the months of may and August, was interviewed in each case 3400 eligible to vote. Populist settings have been measured by the extent to which the respondents sympathize with the three populist beliefs: Anti-Establishment-attitude, Anti-pluralism and the desire for the implementation of the “people’s will”.
Radical rhetoric of the left and right
Interestingly, according to expects about one in every eight voters with populist inclinations, such as the political Mittezu. This Trend is mainly the right-wing party “Alternative for Germany, according to the study,” the benefit of that, it has been possible to draw traditionally moderate voters to their side. “Right select the AfD, because it is right, and voters from the middle, select AfD, because it is populist,” write the authors of the study, Robert Vehrkamp and Wolfgang Merkel.
The political center shrinks, the edges to take over in 2017.
Another result of the survey: 13 percent of those who see themselves as unpopul istic, not to choose at the next election, the AfD. “The right-wing party AfD uses populism as a kind of Trojan horse,” said the authors.
“The AfD-voters from the middle to choose a populist, but at the same time a much more right-wing party, as it suits your own ideological location. This is possible because the ‘thin ideology’ of populism is charged by the AfD ideologically with the right content.”
Similar has happened partially in the case of left-wing voters who see the party of the left, increasingly as an Alternative to the SPD. The study comes to the conclusion that, of all at the Moment parties represented in the Bundestag, the left party have developed in the past year, the populisti the most rhetoric, and partly also to the right is moved.
Emigration to the Green
How should respond to the moderate parties on the development? You should be a little bit populist to regain voters? The answer is perhaps best the behaviour of the CDU/CSU.
After heavy losses in the recent election to the Bundestag 2017, the Union has moved a good bit to the right and turned, for example, in the migration policy of the culture of welcome of the Chancellor. The Bavarian CSU is in front of the Bavarian state Parliament election in a populist to the AfD split the ticket.
In the election campaign, CSU-Chef Seehofer (l) and Prime Minister Söder has shifted further to the right without success.
However, the Bertelsmann study warns that the traditionally moderate Union, with a shift towards populist set voters, they threatened to etch those increase, who wanted to have to do anything with the populists. The Union is not successful it is through such a strategy, but also regain voters, you’ve already lost to the AfD.
Vehrkamp and Merkel write that “The Union is now in a pincer movement between the increasingly unpopul-ist-civic Green from the left-liberal center and the right-wing populist AfD. The passive or even active operation of a further rising populism in their ranks is a high risk strategy, with a very uncertain outcome would be to Accept, therefore, for the Union.”
A migration movement from the Union to the Green is to be observed, especially in the most recent surveys. In Bavaria, the Greens are in the polls at around 17 percent and have established themselves there, clearly as the second strongest force. But also, nationwide, the Greens are located on high-altitude flight, and have left in some of their polls, both the SPD and the AfD.
Search for “bridge topics”
The Bertelsmann study identified three important areas of policy, with which the moderate parties to back the voters could win, without being populist. For one, the quest is in Germany, in contrast to other countries, according to European Integration, and after a strong German role in the EU as well, even many who sympathize with the populism.
Except for the AfD, the Bertelsmann authors, would win all the other parties with such an offensive Europe policy: “The overall picture shows: ‘More Europe’ is a strong and positive mobilisation of chance, especially in the camp of the unpopul separatist voters, without a negative counter-mobilization from the populist camp fear.”
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“Germany trend”: AfD obsolete SPD
However, the most promising, believe Robert Vehrkamp and Wolfgang Merkel, was to focus on socio-political topics such as “fiscal redistribution” and “housing”. These are “bridge issues” between the populist and unpopul modernist Camps. More investment in social housing could increase the popularity of a party in both populist as well as unpopul istic set citizens at 15 percent.
“The social issues, the most important bridge topics for a society that is split culturally and socially deeper and deeper”, the authors warn: “don’t Should take care of the established parties to these social issues, populists take over.”