After the confusing outcome of the referendum in Macedonia, the ruling social Democrats are looking for a way out of the cul-de-SAC. A crucial role will play the nationalist Opposition.
Zoran Zaev, Even after the Referundum (purpose)Optimist
In the Referendum on the name change, in Macedonia, the government under the social democratic Prime Minister Zoran Zaev could not reach the necessary participation of at least 50 percent of the voters. Only 36.87 the percent of the total 1.8 million voters went to the ballot box. Of which an overwhelming majority of 91,48 percent voted for the contract with Greece.
What are the options now?
One possibility would be to appeal to the sense of responsibility of the opposition party VMRO-DPMNE and its members for the Integration and the future of the country and to convince them to support the Treaty with Greece. For this you would have to agree to the proposed Changes to the Constitution in Parliament. Because a Two-thirds majority, or 80 for a total of 120 votes in Parliament. The ruling coalition currently has 71 votes, so they needed nine votes of the Opposition.
The necessary turnout of 50 percent was not reached in the Referendum
A majority is realistic?
The Opposition has so far always stressed that you don’t want to support the amendments to the Constitution to change the name of the country. It is foreseeable that it will come in the point to no Change. Therefore, it is difficult to find “disobedient” members of the opposition deputies, not even among those who have shown lately that they are with the decisions of their party did not agree. Within the VMRO-DPMNE is a culture of threats prevails betrayed those in respect of which there is, in the rhetoric, the Party, the car, “the party and the country”.
To make matters worse, a deep division of society into so-called “patriots” and “traitors”. This polarization had driven the previous Regime under the former VMRO-DPMNE Chairman Nikola Gruevski, and the same rhetoric has
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his successor Mickoski continued. As a result, the deputies from VMRO will have to make. to hostages of the policy of the party, according to the act against the decision of the party, the “punishment of the people”.
What other options are there?
In such a Situation, only one Option: early parliamentary elections, the social democratic Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev. The parties that support the Treaty with Greece would have to achieve a Two-thirds majority in Parliament, and then without obstacles the amendments to the Constitution, to say goodbye.
What is the schedule?
Zaev has to very quickly make a decision. If he is not able to get to the end of this week, the support of the VMRO-DPMNE for constitutional amendments, then he has the decision for early elections no later than 10. October meetings. The must then on 25.November take place. Only then the new Parliament can approve the constitutional amendments in time for the February or March 2019.
What are the chances of Zaev?
The current government hopes that the large number of “pro” votes in the referendum (605.016 voters, and 91,48 percent of all votes cast) is sufficient guarantee that in the elections the Position for a European Macedonia will win, and not VMRO-DPMNE’s Position for the Isolation and the Status Quo of the country. It is important in the context that in any previous election, a winner of more votes than the “Yes”Option in the Referendum.
How is the Opposition to elections?
The opponents of the referendum have called for a Boycott of
The VMRO-DPMNE wants to avoid new elections. In the last elections, the party lost because of their nationalist rhetoric, particularly against the ethnic-Albanian community, their coalition potential. And without the selected Albanian deputies no Macedonian party can form a stable coalition government. In the case of new elections, the VMRO could be noted. large losses – also because the policy of the social divide has become your trademark. Because of its nationalist rhetoric, it is likely that the party would be further marginalised.
Nevertheless, party officials who want to remain anonymous say that the VMRO-DPMNE will maintain their course to the end. Thus, the Prime Minister, Zaev will have no choice other than early elections.
And what you can do Athens in this Situation?
While Zaev has theoretically two options – either an Agreement with the Opposition or fresh elections – remains Greece currently, nothing is left as a further development in Macedonia to be seen. Greece will ratify the Treaty only when Macedonia has carried out the corresponding changes to the Constitution. If this does not happen, the contract is invalid, and thus Macedonia’s membership in NATO and the announcement of the beginning of the negotiations with the EU back in the distant future most likely.