Merkel is in a political autumn

History is repeating itself. Sometimes. Once Merkel wrote, your party must learn to “run”. Now it is ready. But slowly.

“Revolution!” and “what comes next?” Irony, and a tense excitement in Berlin on the day after that. On the one hand, political life is more formal: Cabinet meeting in the Chancellery. Work of the Committee in the Bundestag. On the other hand,…. Merkel to Volker Kauder, your most loyal followers in the group, a other.

The showed their words, even more, her face on Tuesday evening. “This is the hour of democracy, there are defeats, there’s nothing to sugarcoat. But still, I want the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag is working successfully – that’s why I’m going to Ralph Brinkhaus, wherever I can.” It was the appearance of a politician has lost.

He’s with her

Merkel herself had an appointment on Wednesday morning, a short-term scheduled. The new Union group chief Brinkhaus was in the Chancellery. Had previously said: “We have ambitious projects before us,( …) then we are in the morning again, to do what the people expect of us, to work on the thing.”

The New Union Leader Ralph Brinkhaus

The choice of the brink house was definitely a sign of life a long letargisch-looking group. The Signal that you will not have to follow every hint from Merkel or Seehofer. But it is, if you reread Talk of 2009 for the first time in the Bundestag recovered, deputies, brink house, or listening to him a little familiar, not a coup against Angela Merkel. Coup leaders in the group, the others are. “He has won many of the members that he has said: He is to Angela Merkel, and he wants no change of course. It comes to a new work style,” said Armin Laschet, North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister and Deputy CDU Chairman, in the ZDF.

Erhard-Union

What suits Merkel: The predominantly financial policy in the Bundestag, speeches by Brinkhaus are emphasized on a European level. He recalls the commitment of the German side to compromise. And he is a classic representative of the social market economy. Brinkhaus stand for the “Ludwig-Erhard-Union,” says one who knows him for a long time. But it is not just Merkel-man.

The CDU is traditionally not a putsch party. Therefore, the event from Tuesday evening, is so remarkable. Ultimately, the group has sent out a Signal: no matter what happens, one day, with Merkel or the government – the group is in speech and capable of action.

Dangerous Memory

They dominated the single coup in the CDU-history: Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel

For Merkel, which led, in December 1999, the last coup in the CDU, the eternal party leader Helmut Kohl from office urged, and almost five months later, even the presidency took over, that is a new experience. And dangerous reminder. “The party,” Merkel wrote 19 years ago, would now have to “learn to trust in the future, even without ( … ), Helmut Kohl, ( … ) the struggle with the political opponents”.

The Union group is just learning of this Run. All of a sudden. Finally. Political opponents say, that of Kauder was a vote of censure against the Chancellor. Whether it will actually be to such, the will show the next few days. But it is definitely a Signal to Merkel. Also conversation partner in the economy or competitors on the European stage, the exercise carefully and know that the Chancellor is in their political fall.

Angela Merkel, Horst Seehofer, Andrea Nahles – three ailing party Chairman

Now the three party leaders, Merkel, Nahles and Seehofer, each are counts in the respective bearings. And in October, two state elections with Bavaria and Hesse, both of which have the stuff to Berlin to broadcast.

Only after the elections

In these elections, two of the Union are at risk of-run state governments, at least. Only after these decisions, a basic mood for the CDU-Federal party Congress in December in Hamburg clear.

The beginning of this year a Coup Merkel with the sudden establishment of Annegret Kramp-karrenbauer as the new CDU General Secretary. Their choice at the end of February in Berlin, came to a jubilant celebration. But since Brinkhaus is clear: In the Union, every mood, within one month, can tilt permanently against Merkel. At any time.

The last jubilee festival of the CDU: The choice of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to the Secretary-General

At some point you will have to announce whether she is running again as CDU Chairman. “You do,” says political scientist Gero Neugebauer of the German wave. “Because only from this Position with the necessary authority to the group as a party Chairman. In this respect, I think, they will consolidate their position.” But Neugebauer expected that Mrs Merkel is already considering who will follow her as party Chairman.

 


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