On Sunday, the Russians, governors, mayors, regional and local people to select representatives. Some of the election results could come as a surprise, experts say. At the same time protests against the pension reform are expected.
The election campaign in 2018, was so weak as not for a long time, my observer. You therefore expect a low turnout. Add to this that in most of the regions of the Russian Federation of a real competition could be no question.
“Dazzling candidates and representatives of regional elites, who were partners in a competition to the power, were not allowed at all,” said George Melkonjanz by the Association for the protection of the rights of voters (“Golos”) of the DW. According to him, it is dangerous, without the support of the state to take power in elections. Such candidates would be released from the authorities immediately under the pressure – even with the initiation of criminal proceedings.
Secure Forecasts
The governors of 22 regions, including the Moscow mayor, are elected directly. In most regions, the result is already regarded as safe. “But there are three regions with weak governors: the Khabarovsk Krai, Khakassia and the Vladimir Region”, – said Aleksandr Kynjew of the “higher school of Economics” in Moscow. “I’m excited to see how the voters under the conditions of vote, where the challengers are weak and the people are always dissatisfied,” said the analyst, compared to the DW.
Hardly opponent, has the power of the state is also in the elections to the regional parliaments. Even the opposition candidates were first admitted, were excluded after complaints from competitors of the elections. But there are exceptions. In the elections to the parliaments of Yekaterinburg, Buryatia, as well as the regions of Irkutsk and Ulyanovsk region have managed the opposition to get on the ballot. “The election campaign in Irkutsk is the most interesting,” says Kynjew. There is a Communist Governor and the Pro-Kremlin party was divided on the issue fights of the “United Russia” due to internal power.
Mobilization of voters
Also in the case of the mayoral election in Moscow is no real competition. Therefore, observers say it was more of a vote of confidence to the current leadership of the capital. Of the 32 candidates, only five came on the ballot, including the incumbent, Sergei Sobyanin. Not a single opposition candidate was registered, that neither Dmitry Gudkov of the “party of change” Ilya Yashin of the movement “solidarity”.
Mayor Sergei Sobyanin enjoys the support of the Moscow Patriarch Kirill
“Moscow is a rich Region. Before the elections, the leadership wants to please the citizens,” said George Melkonjanz. The best example of this is that, this time, on the dacha, in 209 polling stations in the country, the voice can be delivered. For the first time, in Moscow, in other regions polling stations for the inhabitants. In addition, the city of Moscow announced an infrastructure program for the dacha settlements. According to estimates by the NGO “Golos” look at the dachas administrations, the electoral turnout as an indicator of whether your settlement will benefit from the program in the future. In order to make the inhabitants as comfortable as possible, remain in the polling stations two hours longer open.
Furthermore, the citizens are lured to the polls with gifts of the choice. For example, voters under 30 years of age to be promised free tickets for concerts by popular groups.
Protests against pension reform
For the day of the election, supporters of the Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny rallies against the increase in the retirement age have planned. In total, registered in more than 80 cities actions. In most, including in Moscow, they were not approved, however. A permit was only issued in Saint Petersburg and Cheboksary on the Volga river.
The pension reform, women do not go with the 55, but with 60 years into pension. For men, a pension age of 65 years will apply, currently it is 60 years. According to surveys, 90 percent of Russians are opposed to the Reform. President Vladimir Putin, but stressed that it was due to the demographic change is inevitable. Critics point out that the life expectancy of Russian men is about 66 years, so that many of them – will not achieve, especially in poor regions – the new retirement age.
Alexei Navalny leaves a police Bus in front of a court in Moscow
“Interference in elections”
Navalny himself is not to come to the rallies, because he is serving because of unapproved protest actions in January, currently, 30 days in prison. But a Video in which he calls to participate in the demonstrations, but not in the elections, is widely used by Navalny’s campaign staff, including on YouTube.
The Russian authorities have warned already the Youtube-parent company Google, they would consider the provision of promotional tools for Navalny as interference in the elections. “Such initiatives by Google are the result of hysteria within the Russian authorities. But if the state makes you nervous, then the feeling of the people,” said political analyst Aleksandr Kynjew. The citizens would then. just do the opposite of what makes the state This could increase the turnout among the protest voters. Ultimately, the results of the election in a number of regions for the Ruling could be an “unpleasant Surprise”, said the expert.