The knife attack on the ultra-right presidential candidate Jair Messias Bolsonaro, heating up the already tense political climate. The assassination is likely to benefit the victims most of all.
The knife-attack on the ultra right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Juiz de Fora, in the Southeast of Brazil, is the culmination of a heated election campaign. On 7. October the first, at 28. October a possible runoff election. The race is open, five candidates are able to calculate the opportunities. The chances of Bolsonaro has risen since the assassination.
Although he must spend the next two weeks in the hospital. But, for him, unusual victims role is to bring the polls already leading Ex-military for more votes. “It might have its place in the run-off elections,” says political scientist Ricardo Ismael of the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-RJ), opposite the Deutsche Welle.
Bolsonaro had been stabbed on Thursday afternoon during a rally. The motive of the perpetrator is unclear. He had acted in the “order of God”, he said to the police. In social networks has been speculated about Connections of the man to the left parties.
Just before the attack, Jair Bolsonaro on the election campaign in Juiz de Fora
The political situation has heated up like never before. Ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the leftist labor party, PT is located in the polls with almost 40 per cent in the front. But Lula is sitting because of a conviction for corruption and money laundering in April in custody, his candidacy was prohibited by the justice. Currently, it is unclear when Lula transfers officially his candidacy to his Deputy, Fernando Haddad.
The election campaign, with Violence
Lula and the PT have been the target for Bolsonaros harsh verbal attacks. Most recently, he called for a campaign appearance to his followers, PT-politicians “to kill”. The Ex-military power of Lula and the PT for the rampant corruption and the violence in the country. He promises to firearms for self-protection for the people and police officers who kill many “bandits”, to award. Bolsonaro poisoning with this discourse, the political climate, his opponent.
In fact, the politically motivated violence has increased. In March, the popular afro was shot in Rio de Janeiro-Brazilian politician, Marielle Franco, a little later, the campaign bus of Lula, was fired on in southern Brazil. At the time Bolsonaro has accused the PT to have the assassination attempt, even staged. Similar allegations were also against Bolsonaro loud. He had a simulated knife attack, in order to secure advantages in the election campaign, so speculation on social networks. Given the Severity of the injury, these accusations fell silent quickly.
Mourning for the executed politician, Marielle Franco in Rio de Janeiro (March 2018)
Nevertheless, the assassination Bolsonaros benefit opportunities, Ricardo Ismael. After he was accepted among his followers as “Mito”, meaning “myth”, now come the role of victim. “The discourse of Bolsonaro-voters is that they did not want to kill him, so he becomes President,” said Ishmael. “Among the as yet undecided voters, he is likely to have by the assassination, moreover, the sympathies and votes.”
It could mean the breakthrough for Bolsonaro. Although he argues since the departure of Lula is already significantly in the polls. However, 44 percent of potential voters said they would definitely vote for him. “So he had, in a may runoff, a huge Problem,” said Ishmael. According to polls predictions so far, a defeat of Bolsonaro in the ballot, no matter against whom he would compete. “What happens now is, will improve its values, however,” said Ishmael. “Since he could be now to become more competitive.”
Who reached the runoff election?
While Bolsonaros opportunities to participate in the ballot, is completely open, to whom he could meet. The decisive factor is likely to be, who secures the votes of the eliminated candidate, Lula. The center-left candidate Ciro Gomes (PDT) seems to be according to the latest polls, to benefit the most. The former Minister of the environment Marina Silva (REDE), which is with Gomes in the same position, but levelled last. A sign that you are not affected by the exclusion of Luals professional animals, Ishmael.
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Brazil: President searched forLuiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, the PT (workers ‘ party)
Ex-President Lula da Silva ended his two presidencies with the unsurpassed popularity. And now he is leading since 2017 the polls, even though he is in prison for corruption sentenced to prison. His candidacy is likely to be rejected. When it comes to setting up the PT, the former mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad,.
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Brazil: President searched forJair Bolsonaro, PSL (social liberal party)
Bolsonaro, 63, a former soldier and a long-standing member, is considered to be ultra-conservative. He speaks against homosexuality, wants to allow the free possession of weapons, praises the past military dictatorship and endorses torture. Without Lula, he would cite the opinion polls. Bolsonaro puts on the social media, the lack of resources of his small party balance.
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Brazil: President searched forMarina Silva, SPEECH (center-left green party)
In 2010 and 2014, the former PT Minister of the third was placed. In its third candidacy occurs for the first time with their own party. But their TV time and campaign resources are very limited, and you had problems to find a coalition partner. Now she counts on the support of the small Green party. Silva enlists in the election campaign for ethical principles in the policy.
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Brazil: President searched forCiro Gomes, the PDT (a center-left party)
The former Governor and Minister, a candidate with 60 years for the third Time for the presidency. In 2018, he represents, in view of the problems of Lula is an Alternative for the left-wing spectrum. He focuses mainly on economic issues. Despite advances with the PT of the coalition partner is missing him.
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Brazil: President searched forGeraldo Alckmin, the PSDB (center-right party)
The former Governor of the state of São Paulo is trying for the second Time to win the presidency. The 65-Year-old with the “center”, a for offices, patronage well-known Alliance of small parties, the largest supporter of the Alliance, but fails in the polls. In 2006, he managed a complete surprise in the runoff, only to lose out.
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Brazil: President searched forAlvaro Dias, Podemos (Liberal Party)
The Senator from the state of Paraná maintains a moralizing discourse, and is full of praise for the Anti-corruption determination “Lava Jato”. Dias, 73, was one of eight parties, even for Brazilian standards much. Especially in southern Brazil, he has a good survey, and is therefore regarded as dangerous competition for Alckmin, whose party has a strong base.
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Brazil: President searched forHenrique Meirelles, MP (centre party)
The former Minister of Finance (R) is the candidate of the government of President Michel Temer and defended its economic policies. But his connection to the unpopular President hurts his campaign. The 72-Year-old has found no potential coalition partner. Meirelles is after 24 years, the first presidential candidate of his party.
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Brazil: President searched forGuilherme Boulos, PSOL (the left party)
Boulos, 36, is the leader of the homeless movement. At the time of his appointment to the candidate, his party split. Its proximity to the PT candidate Lula was criticized by intra-party opponents. He is fighting for a more equal distribution of income and against President Temer, but is behind in the polls so far.
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Brazil: President searched forSix other candidates
Among them, the liberal Ex-banker João Amoêdo the party Novo, and the Union girl, Vera Lúcia, the socialist workers party, PSTU. José Maria Eymael of his Christian democratic DC for the fourth Time. Cabo Daciolo (image) to represent the radical right-wing party Patriot, João Vicente, son of former President João Goulart, occurs for the left-wing party “Free homeland”.
A great Problem was imminent, meanwhile, Geraldo Alckmin of the center-Right party PSDB. Alckmin and Bolsonaro are direct competitors for the favor of the conservative and right-wing electorate. “Alckmin has by the assassination of a Problem. Because so far, he has focused his attacks in the choice spots on Bolsonaro. But he can still attack a candidate, hart is in the hospital? It could backfire on you.”
Critical is the Situation of Lula’s Deputy, Fernando Haddad. Particularly in the North-East, where Lula’s high castles, and knows hardly anyone. “He urgently needs to start in the North-East, to win Lula’s voters,” says Ishmael
Meanwhile, supporters of Bolsonaro were in and out of social networks, almost euphoric. Now your “myth cannot be stopped”, they wrote. Also Bolsonaros son Flávio was confident of victory. “A message to these bandits: you have just been elected the President, he will win on the first ballot.”