The economic institutes in Germany to correct their growth forecasts for the coming years easily upwards or downwards. All share the realization that the country has entered the late phase of a long boom.
Private consumption and a strong labour market provide for a constant economic growth in Germany. The Munich-based Ifo Institute therefore increased its economic forecast for 2018 and 2019 to a tenth of a point to 1.9 percent. Strong income growth beneficiaries of the desire to buy, said the head of the ifo economic research, Timo Wollmershäuser on Thursday.
The Berlin-based DIW Institute cuts its growth forecast for the German economy slightly. The gross domestic product is expected to grow this year by 1.8 percent, said the German Institute for economic research (DIW) on Thursday. So far, it was assumed to be 1.9 percent. For the coming year, 1.7 percent are expected as in the past, for 2020 and then again to 1.8 percent. “From a burglary can be no question,” said the head of DIW Claus Michelsen.
Personnel shortage is slowing the expansion of production
Other major institutes such as the Kiel Institute for the world economy (IfW) and the Institute for economic research Halle (IWH), expect by 2020, with stable growth rates of up to two percent. “Overall, the signs that the German economy is entering the late phase of the upturn, because clearly strained capacity, the make, for example, in shortages of personnel, as well as Intermediate and equipment goods, felt, a stronger expansion of the production stand in the way of growing,” said IfW expert Stefan Kooths. Particularly pronounced this show in the construction industry, which recently recorded the highest price increase for 25 years.
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Similarly, the impulses from the world economy will continue, the experts agree. “The company will invest initially reluctant – partly because their sales expectations are also dampened in the face of trade disputes,” said Timo Wollmershäuser from the Ifo Institute. In addition, in all of the forecasts that the ceasefire in the trade believe that a war between the EU and the USA and the Brexit pull sorted, so Wollmershäuser.
Less unemployed expected
According to forecasts by the Ifo, the number of employees in Germany are expected to rise in the coming year to 500,000 people to 45.4 million. In 2020, it could be 45.8 million Employees. At the same time, the unemployment rate will fall within two years by 0.5 percent to 4.7 percent, it said.
Also, the DIW expects for 2020 a decline in the number of unemployed to around 430,000 million to 2.1 million. Of the good economy, the public finances will benefit. For this year, a record surplus of 60 billion euros is expected to be in the coming years, only a little smaller. “The should, however, not wasted, but wisely invested in the future,” urged the President of DIW Berlin Marcel Fratzscher. “In research and education, transport infrastructure and digitisation, there is still a need for action.”
zdh/hb (rtr, dpa)