The war in Syria, the attacks on Idlib. Dictator Bashar al-Assad and his allies are already planning the reconstruction. Russia demands money from Europe. Should Germany contribute?
Tarek M. speaks, as it often goes, with his family in Aleppo. In 2015, he fled via the Balkan route to Germany at the time, he was 23 years old. M. fled alone, his real name, he does not want to call. Because M. fled from the military service – he did not want to participate in combat actions of the Assad regime, the West of the city-dominated, where he lived with his family. In Ostaleppo the insurgents for four years had withstood the attacks of the Syrian regime and its supporters. But then in front of all Russian fighter jets shot this fortress storm Mature. In December 2016, Syria’s Regime could bring the entire city under their control.
The consequences of the battle are still visible today, Tarek M., who now lives in the Ruhr area and works hears, even from his family: The infrastructure is overloaded, the water and power supply to be desolate. In the East of the city, it is even worse, he says.
Tarek M. 2015 via the Balkan route to Germany
The reports of his parents and the photos and Videos that circulated, signed the picture of a rubble landscape. “Reconstruction in the East there can be no question,” says Tarek M. “And even if they did, whose money would come from for the benefit?”, he asks, skeptical.
German policy without a clear course
Today, Assad controlled with the help of his protective powers, Russia and Iran, an estimated two-thirds of the country. “The war in Syria is not over,” says Tarek M., The battle of the regime, the last stronghold of all the insurgents and extremists in Idlib has begun. Of Idlib, striking Assad is the winner.
Many cities in Syria are reduced to rubble. Therefore, the reconstruction is a crucial question. Mainly it’s about who financed him. Because neither the Syrian Regime nor Iran or Russia want to bear the cost alone. The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, of around US $ 250 billion needed to Syria’s infrastructure. The Syrian Regime estimated the total even with $ 400 billion.
Also, large parts of the Syrian city of Homs are completely destroyed
Russia has already claimed of Europe, to provide financial aid for reconstruction in Syria. However, even if Chancellor Angela Merkel, it is difficult before their Meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Meseberg is the joint responsibility of Germany and Russia for a solution to the Syria crisis emphasised: In the political Berlin, to give a clear answer to the question of a possible German participation in the reconstruction of Syria, not exclude them. It was not until April 2018 – at a Syria donor conference in Brussels – speech by Federal foreign Minister Heiko Maas, that a political solution is a prerequisite for reconstruction assistance.
Government spokesman Steffen Seibert stated that Germany wanted to make within the world community to find a political solution to allow the Syrian people a decent life.
Rolf Mützenich (SPD): conditions for reconstruction aid
As a post-war order could look like, nobody knows yet. Foreign policy expert Rolf Mützenich, the SPD, in this context, the United Nations has a duty. “A condition is that there must be an UN-legitimized peace solution,” he told Deutsche Welle: “A solution to all the people who want to return to Syria, also allows you to return.”
Assad wants a “homogeneous” Syria
However, for whom Syria is supposed to be in the future is still accessible, it was in power, Assad so far, no doubt. Although they have lost many men, and the infrastructure, but that Syria had received a healthier and more homogeneous society, he said in 2017, at a conference in Damascus.
“My impression is that the Syrian leadership has depopulated the territories in which the insurgents were strong, very systematically,” says middle East expert Guido Steinberg of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik in Berlin. For decree number 10, which allows the Syrian government, the confiscation of property from abroad, refugees Syrians speak, should not this make within a year their claims in Syria to claim it. It could be that certain areas are then built up with a other group of the population in the interest of the regime and less in the interests of returning refugees. However, refugees from opposition areas fled, or as an opponent to Assad’s known, “you must expect that you are arrested, are tortured and killed,” says Steinberg of the DW.
Close allies: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (left.) with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad
In the process, Vladimir Putin linked his foray to the common reconstruction of Syria with the prospect of the return of refugees from Europe. He knows how much the topic of Germany and the EU splits. FDP-fraction Deputy Alexander Graf Lambsdorff criticized the initiative of Russia sharp. The daily newspaper The world, he said, Russia had gone with his military commitment financially to the limits of its performance and could therefore play in the reconstruction of a major role: “but This should not lead us to the Russia broken gebombten roads back in service, the Assad’s returning refugees in the torture cellar minions then back to procrastinate.”
Germany had to make real demands on Russia. However, Russia is convinced of the necessity of the UN-led political solution is likely to be considered difficult.
Return of the refugees?
Guido Steinberg considers that it is nevertheless possible that Germany will participate sooner or later in the reconstruction of Syria, “if there is the possibility, or even the prospect of sending refugees back”. At the moment, it could be a but no question, nich says Rolf hat. Currently, the return, forbid, especially in the areas where people have been displaced. If other German politicians should not even think of deportation to Syria, warns Pro ASYL spokesman Bernd Mesovic, so this is not possible for practical reasons: the reasons for Flight had not been raised in the written procedure during the years 2014/2015 sufficiently individualized, because you wanted to speed up the process. Therefore, you do not know in all cases, which is the party of war, the people fled.
But first, there is the question of aid for reconstruction. Foreign politicians Mützenich says that you have to think about how international organizations and member countries of the United Nations in re-building can contribute, and under what conditions. About half a Million Syrians have been killed by the bombs of Assad and his supporters in the last seven years in the war. You would not make a financial support for the reconstruction in Syria, with a despot in common? “If I have to work alone with this approach – which is morally entirely justified – in the practical policy, then I will, ultimately, want to try to live in their home country,” nich says Rolf hat.
No reconstruction aid from Germany: SWP-expert Guido Steinberg
The Syrian citizens in Syria can’t be justice anyway – so at least Tarek M. sees it, “The money will go to but anyway, the ordinary citizens who need it, but only Assad’s friends,” he says. The Federal government would do so much for Syrians in Germany. The 26-Year-old could return after his escape from the military service, even in a built up Syria as soon As he sets foot on Syrian territory, he faces a prison sentence.
Middle East expert Guido Steinberg holds a German participation in the reconstruction of Syria – no matter what the circumstances – is wrong. Neither Damascus, nor Tehran, nor Moscow would take Germany then ever again, as a foreign and security political actor seriously, he says. Iran and Russia wanted to stabilize the Assad Regime and a new Prestige to win: “And we would carry the war aims of criminals.”