With their sanctions, the government of U.S. President Trump wants to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. This is a risky and dangerous policy, as Henning Riecke of DGAP in the interview-explained.
Deutsche Welle: What is from the point of view of the German society for Foreign policy (DGAP), the motive for the much-criticized re-enactment of the Iran sanctions by the USA?
Henning Riecke: For the Americans, the nuclear was never alone question important, but they were always a package of allegations to Iran. This includes the promotion of Shiite violence groups in neighbouring countries; the pressure on Israel, or the denial of Israel’s right to exist; the poor human rights situation in Iran and the confrontation with Saudi Arabia and the role taken by Iran in Syria and Iraq, and the strategic Situation of Iran has improved.
In contrast, the Americans want to take action. The Iran deal should lift out from the US point of view, originally, the nuclear issue and, to some extent, further negotiations with Iran easier. That didn’t work.
Now, the US government under Donald Trump and the Republicans hope that by the hard pressure you want to exert, the Regime in Tehran collapses under economic compulsion together, and that then the Iranians, to some extent, democracy.
Henning Riecke: Washington’s goal of regime change is unrealistic and dangerous
The United States to pursue a realistic policy?
No, it is a very risky and naive policy. Even if many Iranians bitching about your government, you are not generally opposed to an Islamic Republic. And, above all, they are very nationalistic and hate outside interference. The US hunted together with great Britain in 1953 a democratically elected President from office and the Shah, who was an authoritarian, violent ruler, did not forget the Iranians. The know to every school child.
How do you rate the chances of that can get the EU or the Federal government, the nuclear deal by means of economic guarantees to Iran?
The chances are not good. The secondary sanctions also non-American companies are made any business with Iran in certain sectors is virtually impossible [secondary sanctions means that all companies that do business with Iran, under the sanctions, are likely to face in the United States with penalties, Anm. d. Red.]. And also any other kind of business is not longer financially viable, because the banks involved, also, in order not to be of U.S. sanctions affected.
These are things against which the European Union is not easy to approach. Although there are the so-called “Blocking Statute”, the European company, in a sense, prohibits, and sanctions throw against Iran, and the possibility for compensation. But this is difficult to implement. Companies independently decide whether or not you want to remove in the long term from the American market or not. And there is still much more attractive than the Iranian. There is no legal possibility to force European companies to be active in Iran.
That is to say, the Americans have created a Situation in which actually no-one really shops in Iran can do, except Russia and China, with its state-owned enterprises, so as to maybe ways of payment to maintain. The EU has relatively few capabilities.
There is still a Basis for a common policy on Iran by the EU and Germany and the United States?
I actually think that it is the interest of the Germans and the Europeans is to get the Americans somehow back on Board. If you take a look at the list of foreign Minister Pompeo, the demands now placed on Iran, appears to be the most difficult. There are very hard requirements with regard to the nuclear programme, it will be more and more durable, than in the nuclear agreement. The development of ballistic missiles is to be reduced to very low levels. Iran should pull out of all conflicts in the neighborhood and he should stop supporting Shiite groups. The claims whose fulfilment is not so easy to prove. Iran should change its foreign policy in a way that would leave little of the Islamic Republic of left.
US Secretary of state Pompeo: “The sanctions are an important part of our fight against Iran’s malicious activity”
That’s not to far-reaching demands?
You would have to find out what the Americans insist actually. It is true that the Iranian missile program must be cut back. That you negotiated this, you must be part of a package. Israel’s right to exist must not be questioned, even though that will be hard to get to and from Iran, where the antagonism to Israel belongs to the state. And you would have to ask in principle that Iran plays in the conflicts in Syria and in Yemen a constructive role and its influence on the relevant groups to end the fighting.
If Iran could show that it would be of course for the Americans is difficult to say: “you are the bad guys.” But it would have to be a very large package negotiated with many concessions on the part of Iran. In most areas, the Americans and Europeans together, but there is also much porcelain has been smashed. The trust is gone, after Trump wants to act to keep track of everything and you ask yourself: Can you rely on an agreement at all?
What Iran should do?
Actually, Iran has no interest in continuing the nuclear program, these sanctions are good books. Actually, Iran would have an interest in the West in any direction. But the Americans have set the bar so high that Tehran can afford it.
Henning Riecke is head of the program USA/Transatlantic relations of the German society for Foreign policy (DGAP).