Despite the harsh words of the North Korean conflict will not escalate militarily. Neither the U.S. nor China’s interest, DW columnist Frank Sieren says.
As politically charged as it is now, the situation between North Korea and the United States last was 23 years ago. In June 1994, the Clinton administration was on the verge of bombing a research reactor, 100 kilometers North of Pyongyang. The plans were already prepared on the table of the Oval Office. A minimum of six months of the war, with up to a Million dead, including 80,000 to 100,000 U.S. soldiers, prophesied a military consultant to the Pentagon for the case of a second Korean war.
At the last Moment managed on their own to Pyongyang-travelled Ex-to convince President Jimmy Carter, North Korean leader Kim Il Sung and his successor Kim Jong Il, the Plutonium-processing until further notice to suspend. The United States promised, in return for an end to the sanctions and provision of light-water reactors to generate electricity.
The Republicans are divided, however, about how you should be using the North Korea deal. You do not kept their part of the agreement, and the North Koreans were not particularly reliable. The hesitant approach was, at the latest, then again at the end, as George W. Bush is the “rogue state” in 2002, in its “axis of Evil” was.
Two men who absolutely want to demonstrate strength
Meanwhile, North Korea actually has nuclear weapons. His most recently tested Intercontinental ballistic missiles can potentially reach the American mainland, probably already today, the US military base on the Pacific island of Guam, at least, of the range. Whether you take the island, however, is a whole other question.
What is new is that Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump today with two equally inexperienced as unpredictable state are leaders who want to demonstrate their own people at any price strength. Nevertheless, you can’t throw both in a pot. One of them is a dictator, the other, after all, democratically. The “Checks and Balances” are pronounced in the US, in North Korea are virtually non-existent.
China sits between the two disputants. It is in Beijing just as upset about the USA, how about the North Koreans. Repeatedly, Beijing has called on both sides to show restraint. The need to pursue “the path of Dialogue and negotiations,” further advised the state President Xi Jinping Donald Trump this week on the phone, shortly after this, North Korea martial, but are threatened with “fire and anger”. At the same time, Beijing has stopped now, among other things, the Import of coal and iron from North Korea and its part of UN security Council sanctions adopted redeemed.
Beijing wants to force Pyongyang to the negotiating table
However, China continues to supply the Oil that North Korea needs to Survive. The direction is clear: Beijing wants to force Pyongyang to the negotiating table, but under all circumstances avoid that the Regime collapses. And Beijing wants to at the same time Washington is clear that you support their part of the pressure of the international community, however, with the clear objective that the Americans are putting back to the negotiating table. A High-Wire Act.
DW-columnist Frank Sieren
Because even more important than North Korea’s nuclear disarmament is for Beijing, stability on the neighboring Peninsula, mainly because the American troops might advance in the event of an Invasion there to the Chinese border. But even if the Americans would hold back the collapse of the Kim dynasty would bring to China big risks: waves of refugees, civil war States with an uncertain outcome, and in the wrong hands troubled nuclear technology are only three possible scenarios, the 33-year-old Kim as the minor Evil. Beijing does not want a Libyan States on its doorstep.
Representatives of the political Establishment in Washington, such as former Secretary of defense Robert Gates, also from the forced change of regime. And with good reason: As a buffer between the North and the South, the US armed forces are required to continue in the far East, and can secure their own interests strategically.
Also, the Installation of the so-called “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense” (THAAD) could be without a threat from the North can hardly be justified. For almost two years, the United States plan the construction of this missile defense system, the Short – and medium-range missiles over South Korea point to exactly intercept. Since Kim is a fearless, carried out missile tests Jong Us, the Work was accelerated. Until the end of the year, the System should be fully operational. The new South Korean President, Moon Jae-In has announced, however, to check the deployment. Is Beijing a thorn in the side of and China South Korea’s most important economic partner.
Missile shield tensions between China and the United States
The Chinese foreign Ministry criticized the stationing of last year, because of the sophisticated missile shield, “the Dialog to the stability on the Korean contrary to the Peninsula”. South Korean companies have had to take sensitive disadvantages in the Chinese market.
Beijing sees its own security threatened. With a little fine-tuning of the powerful THAAD could move to Radar as long-range missiles of the people’s liberation army and the balance of nuclear deterrence in favor of America.
Meanwhile, Trump has pulled out a new trump card. He threatens China with an investigation for economic espionage and trade barriers. “This is only the beginning,” said Trump with a celebration at the signing of a relevant regulation. The Chinese, however, have already announced counter-measures, should Trump enforce trade restrictions.
But all of that is less bad than a military conflict. The knowledge of both sides. The taunts between the Ascending and the descending world power will intensify. In the North Korea-conflict to speak all of a sudden the weapons, but it is still very unlikely.
Columnist Frank Sieren has lived for more than 20 years in Beijing.