This Wednesday, the renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement between Canada, Mexico and the US. The political noise out of Washington makes an agreement difficult.By Maya Shwayder, Washington.
Negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the United States come together on Wednesday for a first round of talks, the North will negotiate American free trade agreement NAFTA. It is the first Revision since the entry into force in January 1994. At the time the NAFTA agreement was one of the first multilateral agreements of the countries of the rich, industrialised North, the United States and Canada, with a less developed economy of the South, the emerging country of Mexico, their economic relations, agreed.
But because the world looked like 23 years ago is completely different than it is today, a NAFTA Update, my experts. Because the Internet as we know it today, and many of the Jobs created by digitalisation, there was at the time. “If you look at the last 20 years in the United States and Canada, there are a number of issues that need to be addressed by the American and canadian business world,” says Daniel Ujczo, an American lawyer, specializing in international trade and customs law.
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“The irony of this Situation is that, of all things, against the free trade rhetoric of the US President has opened up the opportunity for the agreement to re-adjust. Now, to get the Ball as in American Football, a good distance further to the front, or in the case of our canadian friends, the hockey Puck.”
Due To Restart
“Canada was always in the front of the line, if it went to a NAFTA renegotiation,” says Sarah gold NIB, a former US diplomat, who was in Canada and in Mexico. “Mexico was always good to have new trade agreements in the making, to open up new markets. However, although both countries welcome a reboot, you have to fear that the claims from the US will be so draconian that they are from the Canadians and the Mexicans in their own countries is not employable.”
The stakes are high, because the countries are each other of their largest trading partners. “The trade with the United States and Mexico amounts to more than 25 per cent of the canadian gross domestic product,” says Laura Dawson, Director of the Canada Institute at the semi-public research institution, the Wilson Center in the US capital, Washington. “The Canadians need to at least maintain the Status Quo of the agreement.”
In 2016, the exchange of Goods and services between the U.S. and Mexico amounted to 579,9 in billions of US dollars. Mexico is the third largest trading partner of the United States. And because in all three countries of the 2018 and 2019 elections, everyone wants to bring in his voters something presentable out of these negotiations.
The interests of the United States
In their, published in July of the negotiating objectives of the United States have determined that a new NAFTA agreement “barriers to American exports will have to dismantle” and “unfair subsidies, the market distortions have to be eliminated at the end of practices and onerous restrictions on intellectual property”. “It’s the United States especially to two large thematic blocks,” says trade expert Edward Alden from the Washington policy Institute Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “The old agreement is not intended to gently be brought up to date, because the whole of the modern digital economy in the NAFTA rules.”
The other is “negotiating basket,” said Alden, it will be considerably more difficult to enforce, because it contains Trumps “America-First”claims. This is the main reason for trump’s call for a Re-negotiation of NAFTA: the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico.
The Problem with this is, says Walid Hejazi, of the economy, teaches at the University of Toronto, that trade agreements have nothing to do with trade deficits. “Trump thinks somehow that he can arrange a Deal that Mexico is forcing, to buy American goods for export, while the United States is nothing to import from Mexico. However, trade does not expire.”
What it wants to Canada?
Canada wants to keep its access to the US market. The Canadians, therefore, customs duties and procedures at the borders, experts believe. “We like the Status Quo,” emphasizes Mark Warner, a canadian lawyer for international trade and antitrust law. “We want everything we already have now, keep it. And we want a better access to the US market, without anyone breaking a trade dispute from the fence.”
NAFTA is a hot iron for Canada’s Premier Justin Trudeau, seen here speaking with Donald Trump
Trump’s call for a renegotiation of NAFTA, the canadian Prime Minister, says Sarah gold spring. “Justin Trudeau was elected after the signing of the TRANS-Pacific free trade agreement TPP. However, his followers were thrilled at all,” says the former US diplomat. “Trudeau needed a way to TPP downplay. As a Trump from the TPP agreement, getting out and about a renegotiation of the NAFTA language, the Trudeau just right.”
Thus, Trudeau is not but still a long way from the cutter. “This is a hot iron for him,” says Ian Lee of the Sprott School of Business at the University of Carleton. “The US is our largest trading partner. The overarching goal is that we get so much guaranteed access to the U.S. market as possible. All other detail are issues.”
Mexico’s Interests
“Mexico, with the intent in the negotiations that you have to defend NAFTA,” says Mireya Solis, an expert on foreign policy at the Brookings Institute. “You are of the firm Conviction that it must remain in a trilateral agreement.”
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“Of course, it’s a Good thing for Mexico that the Treaty will be revised,” says Russell Green of Rice University with international economic issues. “But you don’t, after all, were the driving force for a Revision. And after Trump so heavily on Mexico with the gun and has shot, the Mexicans on the Defensive.”
For the economist Walid Hejazi is clear that the impact on jobs will be the Central theme for Mexico. “If Trump forces a result of negotiations, the Mexican exports is limiting, there will be a direct impact on wealth and jobs in Mexico.” The not to would be voters at the ballot box in July 2018. The government party does not want to look as if they have capitulated to US demands, says Russell Green. “You could try, the negotiations as quickly as possible and hope that either fast Grass over the thing grows, or the people are with the results, even happy,” says the expert from Rice University.
And yet, everything is negotiated, U.S. attorney Daniel Ujczo says, with a single Twitter message from Donald Ttrump on the back of the head.