Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani threatens with the cancellation of the nuclear agreement. Ali Fathollah-Nejad of the German society for Foreign policy, sees other reasons behind Rowhani’s sharp words in the direction of Washington.
Iran has threatened with the termination of the nuclear agreement in the event of further US sanctions. Tehran could terminate the agreement “within hours”, should Washington continue its “policy of sanctions and coercion,” warned the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday in a televised speech in Parliament.
DW: Mr. Fathollah-Nejad, what is meant is the threat, the nuclear weapons program to resume, seriously?
Fathollah-Nejad: You should not assess the seriousness too high. The nuclear deal has led to the fact that Iran has practically stomps his entire nuclear program, and it is the big question, how Iran wants to bring it up and Running again. The goes quickly. So easy, this threat can not be made so not true.
That is, it is actually an empty threat?
Right. There are here domestic and foreign – policy signals in the foreground. Domestically, it is a Signal to those hard-liners, who have always been against the Iran Deal, and for a return of the country in Isolation to the West. It is, of course, a replica of similar Statements from Washington. Since you want to demonstrate in Iran, as well hardness. In addition, one should not lose sight of the fact that his new Cabinet is closely moves coordinated with the state leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Rohani, therefore, again to the right. And in terms of foreign policy, it is, in my eyes, a Signal to Europe that it is fighting against a threat of termination of the nuclear deal by Trump.
How important is the nuclear deal for Tehran politically and economically?
For the Elite, the agreement was advantageous, because the authoritarian state has benefited from the revitalization of economic relations. In addition, Iran has strengthened political Status. Therefore, we can say that Iranian “hardliners” are opposed to the nuclear deal. This is not the case, even if there are fundamentalist extremist groups, who prefer Isolation to a possible Opening of the country, because they would then lose their political-ideological position.
And how the population sees this?
Fathollah-Nejad: Signal to Europe
It gave the people great hopes, which have been nurtured by quite unrealistic statements made by Rouhani and his foreign Minister Zarif, that this agreement of the would quickly improve the living conditions of average Iranian. The disillusionment came quickly, once, because the relationships due to various reasons there was no progress in the revival of the economy so quickly, and secondly, because the Bulk of the population benefited from it. We had in Iran a moderate economic growth, but the broad population saw nothing of it. Therefore, a certain amount of Frustration prevails in the population. The economic Situation of most people has deteriorated in the last few years, what is not policy last updated on Ruhanis of neo-liberal economy. Nevertheless, one can assume that the Iranians are interested in Survival of the nuclear deal and not to a new Era of confrontation, and possibly Isolation.
The Iranian strategy is the United States columns on one page and the rest of the Western signatory States, on the other hand, according to the Motto: the bad Trump the good Europeans?
Exactly, that has long been the Iranian strategy, and was also without success. We have in the United States tendencies, a new demonization of Iran, while we have in Europe because of the strong economic interests, rather, a glorification of Iran. The Europe are strongly interested in economic relations with Iran, and would you want to lead then, if the United States adopt a harder line, although under more difficult conditions. The white Rohani. He knows how Europeans tick, and in my eyes his speech is an attempt to put more pressure on the Europeans to exert, in order to mitigate a tougher attitude of the United States to Tehran.
Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad is Iran expert at the German society for Foreign policy in Berlin as well as at the Belfer Center of the Harvard Kennedy School.
The conversation Christoph hasselbach.