The cartel should hold true-accusations against the German auto manufacturer, should you billion in criminal penalties. Harder still, the image is likely to weigh the damage, says the car expert Frank Schwope in the DW-interview.
Mr. Schwope, the German automotive industry is just going to get diesel gate of Volkswagen so some sort of grip, as new allegations come out, and although very fierce accusations of forming a cartel. What does this mean for the German automotive industry from your point of view?
This of course means additional damage. If all this is true as it currently is reported. You can draw comparison to Truck manufacturers that have gotten in the last few years, a sentence of just under three billion for cartel agreements. Then I would assume that it is for the Car manufacturers due to the larger number of vehicles sold and due to the high sales in the passenger Car sector are significantly more expensive. I would estimate that it could go to three to five billion euros of penalty payments if that is true, as I said, so, as it is today.
Three to five billion for all or might be single, especially because Daimler won the race to self-report the cartel, apparently. Then Daimler could be possibly criminal?
Frank Schwope, an Analyst and car expert NordLB
I would assume that the sum amounts to three to five billion, for all manufacturers. Individual can be exempt from punishment, if they were leniency, or if the authorities had no knowledge of the property, then Daimler could be may first, has displayed criminal. Other, perhaps co-operatively in cooperation with the authorities, could get reduced sentences. But overall, I would expect the five German manufacturers amounts to between three and five billion euros.
It could, of course, still claims of damage of car buyers, suppliers, auto dealers. Can the be more?
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. In the Truck areas, we have seen that there are actions for damages from buyers that suppliers also complain. This will of course also come by car buyers in the passenger Car segment. This can add up to another billion. To do this, the damage to our image, you can always calculate heavy, but the end of the day it is determined that the car manufacturers sell in the future, maybe less vehicles that they make less profits and this, of course, there may still be a billion damage.
This is what many fear: That it goes beyond the damage to the image, and the right now, in this time, where the car industry is undergoing the biggest upheaval in its history that the Germans could fall behind?
I don’t think the Germans can fall behind. I think other car manufacturers in the world also have their scandals. But on the other hand, the German manufacturers do, of course, through such Affairs, by such scandals best advertisement for Tesla.
Tesla passed on Friday with a large Buhei, the first 30 of his “model 3” cars to the buyers. Tesla: The big winner from your point of view at the Moment?
Not specifically. Tesla, of course, plays in a different Segment, sells electric cars, is of course hyped by a massive marketing measures. But whether Tesla will, in the end, what you promise to produce say the next year, 500,000 cars, if you can handle the easily and whether you can achieve time gains, is it really in the stars. Sometimes you have to wonder whether Tesla CEO Elon Musk made before winnings or first with his Space-X rocket on Mars to land. Since you can’t be so sure.
Frank Schwope Auto Analyst at NordLB.