Erdogan’s balancing act in the Gulf

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The Turkish head of state Erdogan travels to the Gulf region. Diplomatic skill is in demand: For he must preserve the Alliance with Qatar, but may not continue the good relations to Saudi Arabia.

If the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan travels on Sunday in the Gulf region, he will hardly fail to have the strong characters that he put in the last few weeks, some of the more nuanced consequences. That he is willing to do, is indicated by the travel plan: Even before he meets in Qatar to engage in talks with the closest allies of Ankara in the Region, he is expected to hold talks in Saudi Arabia.

There, you will have questions: Why has the Turkey in the Saudi-Qatari conflict is so clearly on the side of the small Emirate? As the stresses imposed in mid-June, escalated, and Saudi Arabia and its allies a Blockade on Qatar, jumped in Turkey, Like Iran, they also sent over a hundred planes with food in the beleaguered Emirate. Later also ships with auxiliary stung loads in the lake. In addition, Erdogan had declared that the Blockade violates international law and is an attack on the “rights of sovereignty of a state”.

Business partner of Erdogan: The Qatari head of state Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani

Clarification needed in Riyadh

His attitude and decisions will need to explain to Erdogan in Riyadh. In the talks he will hold a defensive course, the middle East expert Günter Meyer from the University of Mainz. Turkey have very close economic relations with the Saudi Kingdom, and to strut about no confrontation. “Erdogan wants to prevent the close connection to Qatar leads to an economic disadvantage.” To the extent that expected, Meyer, is expected to Erdogan in Riyadh, in particular, gave way to a peace-making contribute to the crisis.

Erdogan, the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah nameless quoted in permanent “experts” will explain to his trip, that the dispute “is untenable and artificial, and the interests of all Parties to harm”.

The Alliance with Qatar

However, President Erdogan is in a difficult Situation. For many years, Turkey has a close relationship to Qatar. So the Emirate has been sent after the coup attempt in Turkey in the past year, the 150 soldiers that Erdogan should support. Furthermore, according to Günter Meyer, caring for the family of Erdogan and the Qatari ruling family of al-Thani close economic relations. Important the common dogmatic Basis: the ideology of the Muslim brothers was also. Also, the only military base of Turkey in the Gulf has located in Qatar. “And now, 5000 Turkish soldiers to be sent to Qatar. In this sense, Turkey, as a supporter of Qatar to a crucial Position.”, Meyer says.

Harassed Idyll: evening mood in Doha

Good relationship with Riyadh is urgently necessary

With this policy, Turkey has tried to position itself also as a political actor in the Gulf region. As Qatar also uses the reference to the Muslim brotherhood, to form within the Sunni camp, as a counterweight to the Wahhabism, the Saudi state religion. In this argument, however, is not to religious, but to questions of Power. Qatar and Turkey present themselves as States, the a – to maintain a comparatively – liberal Islam, and thus to bind all those countries, and hope to put this liberalism.

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Nevertheless, Turkey could in the long term, more to Saudi Arabia than to the small Emirate, says Richard Burchill, Director of research at the U.S. Think Tank TRENDS. Except for the military base Qatar, Turkey have not provide long-term Benefits. You give the Turkey a certain strength in the Region. “But economically and politically, I can’t imagine that Turkey supports in the long term, only Qatar and thus the relationship to the rest of the States would spoil in the Region.”

Further Isolation to avoid

This is necessary, because Turkey is currently in a difficult situation, so Burchill. The relationship with the EU is a heavy burden, as is also the Russia. And with Iran, Turkey hardly find common points of contact to call: “Turkey cannot stand in the face of this difficult Situation alone. At the same time, the means to change this Situation fundamentally missing.”

Erdogan’s Trip to the Gulf will serve primarily to protect the long-term interests of Turkey, to preserve all the good relations to Saudi Arabia, despite the solidarity with Qatar. In the case of this company, Erdogan is doomed to success. As the length of the Plan, Turkey would be a Partner poorer. Can you afford currently. Erdogan urgently needs political friends.