G20: a New Phase of globalisation?

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The G20 summit in Hamburg comes at a time of serious upheaval in the world economy. National interests have the upper hand, the Weights move. What are the signals you can send to the Meeting?

The free and Hanseatic city of Hamburg. The host of the G20 summit is officially. The Hanseatic League, in the middle ages created the composite of low German merchants, and later of many cities, is something like the Ur-Form of a free-trade zone. But the free trade, it is not in these days so really good. This is insofar surprising because the world economy is in a relatively stable upward trend.

But you should not let yourself be fooled, warns Henning Vöpel: “You could succumb to the Illusion that there is not to talk about not so much what the world economy, the globalization of concerns”, the Director of the Hamburg world economic Institute (HWWI), compared to the DW. “But appearances are deceptive.” Because there are a number of fundamental developments that would be discussed at the G20 summit. As examples, he cites the rampant Re-nationalisation of economic policy, protectionist measures, on the basis of the United States. “That is to say, it could be that globalization is rotated a bit far back.”

Globalization and free trade

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That should delight the globalization critics, who want to demonstrate in Hamburg, stood up for a fairer world, actually. You can see in the increased interdependence of the world economy, the cause of numerous disruptions. However, the latest report of the Bank for International settlements (BIS) – the Central Bank of Central banks – to the Benefit of, the it is this intertwining of the world have brought: a better standard of living and less poverty for large parts of the world’s population. One of the requirements: the free flow of Goods and services.

Therefore, it is going to make the trade fair, says Vöpel. Especially in regard to developing countries, “and especially on Africa.” The continent will take in the next 20 years, a very decisive influence on the progress of the globalization. Nevertheless, one can see that the free trade “is pushed a little”.

“The States – and I don’t just mean the USA – try again options for action. In this respect, a piece of free-trade actually far to the Disposition. And it’s about to defend him, too.”

Again, the dispute on the closing statement?

To be the summit, with all its diverse but interrelated topics threatens to be so overshadowed by a dispute about the appropriate formulation in the final Declaration? In March, the Finance Ministers of the G20 in Baden-Baden, met, was just that – the Americans blocked the appropriate Passage. Weeks later at the G7 summit in the Italian Taormina, they agreed on a minimal consensus. But such a commitment is worth the paper it is written on? Yes, Gabriel Felbermayr from the Munich-based ifo Institute. The world economic regime is built on cooperation. And you need confidence in the stability of this system.

“That’s why a commitment to free and perhaps fair trade is important, that is in the communiqué.” Although it was in the past so that this confession was being written, and many countries have followed a protectionist policy.

“So it’s mainly a lip-service, but even this has a value because it pretends to be the Norm. And whoever deviates away with it, must not also be accused of to behave cooperatively.”

The green light for a “different” globalization?

The Signal from Hamburg

Also, that Germans and Europeans speak recently always from free AND fair trade – and thus the claims of Donald trump’s record, according to fair trade agreements, foreign trade expert, Felbermayr “more Rhetoric than anything else”. Especially since every other ideas I have of what is fair. And still something: Since US President Donald Trump at the helm in the White house has taken, Europeans and Germans, remarkably often in the direction of Asia – to Japan, China, India – when it comes to free trade or climate protection.

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G20: Who is the winner of globalization?

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G20: Who is the winner of globalization?

Henning Vöpel, a sign that economic Weights move. I started with Donald Trumps ‘America first’, “the can lead to in the worst case, a step of Insolation of the American to a descent of a once leading military and economic power.” The Chinese would like to push into this vacuum, and the Chance to see, now actually in concert with other major economies to join the fray. Vöpels conclusion: “We are at the beginning of a reorganisation of the world economy.”

So could be on the G20-summit in Hamburg, possibly the first outlines of this new order is visible, depending on the cooperation of Donald Trump on the Alster is ready. The expectations of the Meeting are among the economic experts is comparatively low, but one should create the summit in any case, Gabriel Felbermayr: “The big Signal, which should be sent from Hamburg to the basic idea of the cooperation.”