The Dax in the height of rush: On Wednesday, he climbed almost 13,000 points. Since eight years of sustained recovery but also careful. Experts expect to present your corrections, but no Crash.
On the one hand, it is scary, the other exude more Confidence. For eight years, the upswing in the German equity index (Dax) has gone on – in retrospect, without major corrections. On Wednesday (14.06.2017) in the course of a day,with a 12.921, 17 points, a new all-time high on the German stock market.
Optimists point to good sentiment indicators, rising dividends, and the increased profit expectations of the companies, if they advise you to put more to share. Pessimists, which would refer to more as a realist, say, all of these are good reasons now to lock-in gains.
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Bullish with a long breath
The starting point of the now long-running equity bull market about the 30. March 2009. In the case of 3.989 points, the German stock index that summarizes the prices and dividends of the 30 largest German publicly listed share companies together stood there. Now there are almost 12.900 points, good to 220 percent more than at the time. The DAX increased annually on average by a quarter.
There were break-ins, for example, in the summer of 2011, as the stock market barometer slipped of 7,100 to about 5,500 points. Or as it sagged between April 2015 and February 2016 from just under 12,000 to just under 9,000 meters. The steep curves down you can still see the ten-year history. But they do not interfere with the Trend. And the shows up.
Correction instead of a Crash
The only question is: for How long? And as far as possible profit taking could drag the DAX down. Of course, nobody knows, because no one can see into the future. But since expectations affect almost even more than the facts of the courses that may help this note: Even Markus Reinwand, equity strategist at Helaba, the draws for months with the warning of profit-taking across the country, sees the DAX at the end of the year, 12,000 points, and in the spring of 2018 in the case of 12,500 counters.
With “Crash,” it has to do so nothing, if the wall must admit that, as yet, a correction in the stock was remained markets. “But postponed is not cancelled”. High rating and “extreme Calmness” of the investor discussions continue for Setbacks.
Otherwise, Michael Bissinger of the DZ Bank. There is change in the markets, speak little for an abrupt mood he is convinced: “Despite the high rating, the two-digit corporate earnings growth should take the stock markets up.” But totally unreal its course will not impact expectations for the DAX: At 13,000’ll stand at the end of the year, in the case of 13,200 at the end of March 2018.
“World savings day is a national day of mourning”
Careful positive Ulrike Jäger is set, the head of investment strategy at Sal. Oppenheim: “The company gains benefit from the friendly macro-economic environment”, she takes it as an Argument for your Council to increase the percentage of shares in the Depot. She says: “The greatly increased expectations increase at the same time, the potential for Disappointment.”
Of corrections, consolidation, speaks Robert Halver, the equity strategist of the Baader Bank. He would be pleased about a correction, he says, the Fears, the walls in front of it from the market. But a “Crash” will not give it. A reason for this: There is no investment alternative, especially in the bond market with its low to negative interest rates: “The World savings day will be a national day of mourning,” he predicts.
Since the augurs are currently in agreement: The COP needs to have no fear of bears.
Don’t be afraid of a bear market
Anyone who wants to self-judgment, can look at these measures: The price-to-earnings ratio for the 30 DAX stocks on average between 13 and 14: share must, therefore, with the almost 14-times the annual earnings per share to be paid. This is something more than the long-term average.
The dividend yield, i.e. the last paid dividend in percent of the current price, is 2.7 percent, about one percentage point below the long-term average. Shares are anything but cheap.
For short periods of time to Park liquid funds, the stock market has not and currently is not suitable because of its susceptibility to Fluctuations in principle, given the high price levels. Who has time can go and with some justice hope, a possible course delle’ll balance out in the future.