Peace in Colombia, there was what? At the first Meeting between Colombian President Santos with Donald Trump on 18. May is not the end of the civil war in the first place, but the crisis in Venezuela.
From the peacemaker to the crisis Manager: If Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos arrives tonight in Washington, is returning the whole of South America on the political agenda. However, the peace in Colombia is put in the Background. The White house fears currently facing the consequences of the crisis in Venezuela.
“The U.S. government and the Congress are very concerned about the situation in Venezuela,” said Jason Marczak from the Latin American Center at the US Think Tank “Atlantic Council”. “The crisis in the country may lead to the destabilization of the entire Region, and a wave of refugees, as well as an energy crisis trigger.”
In Washington expect the President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos to de-escalate the situation. “Santos will sell as a Gatekeeper for the Region,” predicts Oliver Read, Professor of international relations at the University of Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo. “He is one of the few who can still talk with the government in Venezuela.”
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Santos as a bridge-Builder
The reason for the open voice channel between Bogota and Caracas, the success of the peace are ended negotiations with the revolutionary armed forces of Colombia, FARC, in 2012, began in Cuba and 2016, with a historic agreement that ended the civil war after more than 50 years in Colombia. Venezuela was one of the five Guarantors.
In the opinion of an expert Read Venezuela will be “the big issue for the next few years”. Around 500,000 Venezuelans will be fled to Colombia. Add to this the thousands of Colombians who have worked for decades in Venezuela and now because of the supply crisis, and due to repressive measures of the government in Caracas to return to their homeland.
Money from Washington
Actually, Santos, US President, Trump in the first place wanted to talk about the peace process in Colombia. His main concern is the financial support for the implementation of the agreement and the adoption of the Plan of “Peace for Colombia” by the U.S. Congress. For the current financial year, 391 in millions of US have already been-of dollars in aid.
“Peace in Colombia” to replace the existing “Plan Colombia”. With the Latter, the United States supported in the past 17 years, the fight against drugs and guerrillas with around ten billion dollars. But the end of the civil war, not to a decline in Coca cultivation and drug trafficking in the country – on the contrary.
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Colombia’s fight against drugs
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Colombia’s fight against drugs
Cocaine glut in the USA
According to the U.S. drug supervision ONDCP, the production of cocaine increased in Colombia between 2013 and 2016, from 235 tonnes to 710 tonnes. The quantity seized has also reached record highs. In 2016, the Colombian police found 421 tonnes of material, in 2017 alone, there were in the first five months of 115 tons.
The reason for the Boom, paradoxically, are the drop-out programmes in the framework of the peace Treaty. Bogotá has announced to support Colombian families, the change from cultivation of Coca to cocoa, coffee or bananas, for a period of two years, with around 12,000 dollars – a lot of money for small-scale farmers in remote regions.
The well-intentioned exit help shrubs to a Boom in the cultivation of Coca and the production. “The leaves of the Coca rotting shrubs, and the prices for cocaine are in free fall. This is something I’ve seen yet,” said the Colombian defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas, to the Washington Post, and draws a surprising conclusion: “The peace with the FARC has made the fight against drugs harder, easier.”
Hotspot Venezuela
In the face of this difficult situation, Santos‘ visit to the unit in the White house, a diplomatic balancing act. Because, unlike the US President, Trump Santos rejects a more military to combat drug cultivation. Ironically, his political rival and predecessor, Alvaro Uribe discussed in this matter of Easter with Trump. The “private Meeting” of Uribe and Trump in Florida triggered a certain amount of diplomatic upset.
Over 300 pages long: President Juan Manuel Santos presented to the peace agreement with the FARC
“The trip to Washington is a big Test for Santos,” said Latin America expert Read. But also for the USA, a lot of standing on the game. “Colombia is America’s most important Partner in Latin America. If it came to a rupture between the two countries, this would have negative consequences for the United States in all of South America,” he is convinced.
Jason Marczak is convinced that there is “Peace for Colombia”Plan, no Alternative. The financial support of the peace agreement was in the strategic interest of Washington – thus, the recommendation of the “roadmap for U.S. Engagement in Colombia”, prepared by the “Atlantic Council” and on Wednesday evening in Washington at a dinner with President Santos and U.S. Vice Mike Pence will be presented.
“If the implementation of the peace Treaty in Colombia is unsuccessful, this would lead to a spread of organized crime, violence, and instability”, – stated in the “Roadmap”, which is the DW. “Such a scenario would damage the national security interests of the United States.”