Economy almost unanimously against Brexit

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Economy almost unanimously against Brexit

In a few days, the British decide if they want to leave the European Union. A withdrawal would have severe economic consequences, warn experts. Who speaks for it, who against?

German Economists

An overwhelming majority of German economists, is against a Brexit. The has identified, the Munich-based ifo Institute in mid-may. 85 percent are against it, only ten percent are in favour of him, as from an Economists survey, organised by the Institute together with the FAZ. “This opinion fits surprisingly well to the assessment of the experts from the World Economic Survey (WES) the ifo Institute: In April, we had surveyed over 700 experts from 113 countries to the Brexit. 86.6 percent of the participants were against the Brexit,“ said Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo center for public Finance and political Economy.

A Brexit would, according to 54 percent of the respondents of the Economist panel’s strong economic disadvantages for the United Kingdom. In contrast, 32 percent see low economic disadvantages for the country. For the German economy, 65 percent fear a Brexit a low economic disadvantages, twelve percent expect at least strong disadvantages. A Minority report was an economist with this Statement: “A Brexit brings significant long term benefits for the whole of the EU, because the UK is a brake on European Integration.”

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The European Central Bank

The ECB has expressed, although not officially on the pros and Cons of a Brexits. However, some members of the Council to give left: Ewald Nowotny considers the consequences of a British EU-exit for the Euro-Zone is comparatively low. “For the British, a discharge is economically worse than for the Rest of Europe,” said Austrian Central Bank chief of “süddeutsche Zeitung”. “The City of London (the financial mean square, London – author’s note. d. Red.) will lose their Status.” Many other benefits that today are, of course, would have to be renegotiated. “For the financial system, I see no Problem, because the scenario for Brexit is already been discussed for some time in the market,” said Nowotny. “Should it come to actually so, who should that surprise?”

Not quite so loose, the Governor of the French Central Bank, and François Villeroy de Galhau. In the case of a Brexit, in particular, the British banks could find themselves in turmoil. But also for the monetary Union, this would have consequences, said de Galhau of the Spanish newspaper “El Pais”.

The British Ministry of Finance

…painted almost the devil on the wall. A withdrawal from the EU would trigger an immediate and sharp economic shock, says Sajid David, the Secretary of state for business, Innovation and training. The Brexit would cost at least half a Million jobs and the economic output within two years to 3.6 percent shrink, said Javid at the launch of a study of his house.

3.6 percent, less growth than expected for remaining in the EU would be a similar order of magnitude as in the recession of the early 90s, said Javid more, but still less serious than the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008. Advocates of an exit set value on the observation that forecasts of the Ministry of Finance would have been in the past, regularly in addition.

The British trade unions

Rising costs and falling investment could cost in the case of leaving the EU, many jobs, believe the British trade unions. You see not only a half-a-Million, but four million jobs at risk. The British TUC (Trades Union Congress) does not get tired to warn of the consequences of a Brexit. “Four million Jobs are in danger,” says Owen Tudor, head of the Department for European Affairs at the TUC. In the case of hazardous workplaces, it was mainly Jobs in the export sector, for example in the automotive and chemical industry.

“It is very likely that the prices of British export products in the event of an EU exit will rise,” said Tudor. More Jobs were also in danger, because of the business location, the UK would lose by the loss of access to the EU single market more attractive. “We expect that investments from third countries will decline,” said Tudor. The result could be a downward spiral, the more Jobs it costs.

The unions fear an erosion of workers ‘ rights, should the UK leave the EU. A Million British employee would have to expect after a Brexit may need to work longer, warned the TUC.

The German economy

German entrepreneurs get a bad feeling, should it come to a Brexit. In the worst case, according to a study by DZ Bank, would cost the German economy € 45 billion alone by 2017, and the country may even be in a recession plunge. Would benefit with a safety, especially a professional group: consultants and lawyers, to prepare the company then on the new location, and that high bills could write.

“The damage of a Brexit would be for both sides large,” says Markus Kerber, chief Executive of the Federal Association of German industry (BDI). It is a multi-year negotiation process over tens of thousands of most different contracts of the threat. It will then go to the questions of market access, regulatory Standards, and much more. All would try to pull out of the subsequent negotiations of their benefits. “It’s a bit of Cut and thrust threatens to be,” believes Kerber.