Syria

Many actors, many obstacles

The truce has weaknesses and is still the biggest hope for progress in Syria. How it goes in the Bürgerkriegsland, especially in Aleppo decided.

It is already hard enough, a cease-fire between two hostile parties to mediate. The civil war in Syria but is a war of many stakeholders, inside and outside: Around 100 rebels and armed opposition groups had until Friday afternoon, the truce agreed to. The
Ceasefire itself had at 22. February the United States and Russia agreed, as Chairman of the 17 States existing International Syria-Unterstützergruppe, ISSG. On the side of the Syrian government must be in addition to the Syrian forces of the Russian air force, Iranian associations, as well as Shi’ite militias from Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon to the agreement.

Waffenstilstand with exceptions

The biggest Problem of the truce: for good reasons are the two key actors have been explicitly excluded. The Islamic state and the Al-Qaeda offshoot Al-Nusra as terrorist groups continue to be attacked. As a response the Islamic state with the bomb attacks on 21. February in Homs and outside Damascus, with almost 200 dead in a cruel manner made it clear that he is nothing of the truce holds. The head of the Nusra Front, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, in turn, shortly before the beginning of the ceasefire the rebels in Syria to strengthen the fight against President Bashar al-Assad and his allies are called. If the now – as it is the agreement allowed – to continue its fight against Al-Nusra do, especially in and around the nordsyrische city of Aleppo to be problematic.

Aleppo: a debris field with 40,000 fighters

Patchwork Aleppo

Around 40,000 fighters in the armed Opposition should be in the city, distributed to approximately 50 different groups. Al-Nusra is one of the strongest of them, with control over important infrastructure, such as water and power supply. In the patchwork of Aleppo in positions of Al-Nusra and other opposition groups physically close to each other. Here to keep apart and on cards in place, where to be attacked is allowed and where not, is extremely difficult. And: Even moderate groups are always tactical alliances with the extremists. After five years of civil war had none of the former opposition groups been kept clean, ” says Daniel Müller, of the Hessian Foundation for peace and conflict resolution in the DW-Interview. Alliances with extremists like Al-Nusra or the IS would also have the Syrian government is closed: “and that is simply because of the fact that these extremists are all inter-group attack: Both the Opposition as well as the Syrian Regime. And inasmuch as coming to terms that both sides – Regime and inter-group, even with extremists.”

From the covenants of some of the opposition groups, Al-Nusra has the Regime been so far the legitimacy of large-scale attacks are derived. It remains, could continue to drop bombs on groups of fall, the peace process, are involved. This would mean that the cease-fire quickly at the end. Therefore, advocates peace researcher, Müller a particularly restrictive Definition of terrorist organization: “For groups, now and then, with Al-Nusra or the IS certain, you should a kind of Amnesty with them, and say: We try to be with whom to talk and with whom a balance to find.”

The hardly manageable number of opposition groups divided Müller in two main groups: firstly, The Syrian opposition forces like the Free Syrian army and regional Verteidigungsmilizen. On the other, from the outside eingeströmte Islamist and Jihad groups with their own goals such as the establishment of an Islamic state. These included the IS or Al-Nusra. As major stakeholders would have Kurdish groups to where it is mostly about autonomy go.

Soon just look, not shoot?

Radicalization of the Opposition

Originally, the Syrian Opposition is not particularly religious oriented, explains the Frankfurt peace researcher. Over the years, but it had a radicalisation. An important role would have the Gulf States played. Because they are religiously oriented groups are more strongly supported had. A
Study of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of war in mid-February, the armed Opposition in Aleppo are examined. The five most influential groups all belong to the Islamist spectrum. A – by some Gulf States and Turkey supported Ahrar al Sham, was as salafistisch-dschihadistisch classified. Three of the four remaining groups received support also from the United States.

Since about 8000 years ago the area of Aleppo, inhabited by people. In front of nearly 700 years boasted of the Arab traveler Ibn Batuta, the beauty of the city. In front of nearly 250 years, joined the Brit, William Eton, the praise and wrote, Aleppo was the “best built town of the Turkish Empire and its inhabitants, the polite. Now is the former economic centre of Syria, with its ethnic and cultural diversity of a pile of rubble. And the place where the future of the cease-fire and Syria will decide.