Iran
Rohanis reforms and the fear of the “Velvet Revolution”
The Iranians hope for an end to the economic Isolation of their country. Why the powers-that-a normalization of the relationship with the West, but so afraid of, says Iran expert Bahman Nirumand in the DW-Interview.
President Hassan Rohani (re.) with Iran’s revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei
The expectations of the people in the Iran is after the end of the Atomstreits huge. What do Rohani do that after the end of the sanctions, an economic upturn, from which the majority of Iranians benefits?
The biggest Problem of the Iranian economy, which is already before the imposition of the sanctions in a crisis, is the overall management structure, which did not work. And even more important, and much inhibiting the corruption in Iran is very, very widespread. Rohani would have to be a very thorough administrative reform. He would have to fight corruption. He would have all the powers off, the over great Power to his plans. And that seems to me provisionally barely feasible. He can make certain steps to make certain changes to bring about, but such a fundamental Reform as an administrative reform, he can not create.
Rohani hopes, of course, on foreign investment. But there are very powerful forces, the fear is that foreign capital is also a cultural infiltration take place in the country. And both revolutionary leader Khamenei as well as other right-wing forces have warned that the greatest danger is that the Islamic Republic is threatened. This alleged cultural infiltration they call “velvet Revolution”.
But when the West does business when foreign investing billions takes, whether it be from Europe or the USA, then you can bad this hostility against the West, which is one of the most important pillars of the Islamic Republic, maintained. These are All ideological and religious garnished reasons, to warn that the country is foreign capital opens.
“A question of ideology”
Iran expert Nirumand: “It’s about the ideological legitimacy of the Islamic Republic of”
It is not only a question of Power, but also a question of ideology. Because the rulers are afraid that Western culture and civilization could be the Foundation of the Islamic Republic Tremble. And this is also the case, as they have from their point of view is actually right, if this anti-Western attitude would eliminate, if not more, as previously, each week at Friday prayers ‘death to America’ could be calling.
It has for decades, the population on an anti-Western attitude trimmed, and now you can not suddenly to the West as a friend, because then it loses the Islamic Republic’s ideological legitimacy, and before that, the rulers of very large fear.
It is estimated that up to one hundred billion US dollars from Iran to Western accounts are frozen, probably in the foreseeable future and will be released. What do we know about who is behind these accounts is hidden? Are the state economies, which will soon dispose of the money?
One speaks even of more than 100 billion US dollars in foreign Bank accounts. This is partly governmental funds, partly funds from specific companies and individuals. You will this money, which is now slowly partly free will – and I don’t know if it is indeed so much is because the estimates are very different – once for purchases abroad, such as for the Airbus machines, Rohani has ordered or for the anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. This all costs money, that costs billions.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (re.) hits members of the revolutionary guards, at the Gefangenenahme of U.S. soldiers in the Persian Gulf were involved
Do you think that Rohani against the resistance of the revolutionary guard really in-depth reforms can enforce?
At the moment I don’t think so. At the moment, are still too strong, especially since revolutionary leader Khamenei is really one of the supporters of the revolutionary guards heard. And also the different religious instances are behind you. Against it is difficult to proceed, and the government is not already in the location. In comparison to the other instances have the President and the government very little Power, compared to the leader of the revolution, and in comparison to the guardian Council, all appointed and not elected by the people. Therefore, it seems to me very hard, now against it, or the Revolutionswächter to proceed.
What is possible and what I can imagine is that it is within the Revolutionswächter, within the organization of Widerspüche, which then gradually grow and lead within this Organisation changes could cause. Because of these revolutionary guards are not monolithic. There are various factions therein. At that time, at the time of the reform-oriented President Mohammed Chatami, it was believed that the majority on the side of the reformers.
Even today, it is not one hundred percent so that everyone is on the side of the Right, but there is also sympathy for the reformers within the revolutionary guards. Inasmuch as you can imagine, that the further development of already a change could bring. But, now that you from the outside against the revolutionary guards could do that, I can’t imagine, given the constellation of forces at the time prevails.