North Korea

Comment: fear of collapse

Every Time when North Korea nuclear weapons or missile tests, following the call for its big neighbour China, the pressure should be. Beijing could have been good opportunities, but do not use, says Philipp Bilsky.

North Korea’s President Kim Jong-un and his wife (li.) surrounded by the members of the Band Moranbong

Was planned it as a colorful Show, but it ended in a diplomatic Affront: In December, North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong Un, the North Korean Girl Band Moranbong in the neighboring China sent. Your order is: a concert, a thawing of chilled relations between Pyongyang and Beijing symbolize. But then Packed up the singers, all of a sudden your suitcase. The performance was cancelled. The exact reasons for this are still unclear to this day. The rumors range from disagreements over an anti-American lyrics to Anger China over North Korean threats of the hydrogen bomb. But one was the sudden departure of the Nordkoreanerinnen in each case: a diplomatic slap in the face for Beijing.

Frosty Climate

Just a small example, but shows how bad the relations between China and its neighbors North Korea currently stands. China has in recent years repeatedly made clear that it is against the North Korean nuclear program. After the recent Firing of a long-range rocket said Beijing, this will be the tensions on the Korean Peninsula only exacerbate. After the alleged Test of a hydrogen bomb at the beginning of January stressed the Chinese Ministry of foreign Affairs that China was “strongly opposed” the nuclear test and ordered the North Korean Ambassador. The political relations between the two countries are at a low point. From the former ratio of two “Bruderstaaten” is obviously not much left.

Philipp Bilsky forwards the China-editor of DW

But it means that Beijing is no possibilities to have more pressure on North Korea to exercise? No. Because it is also true: North Korea is economically from neighbors China dependent. According to Figures from the Chinese customs, China in the first eleven months of last year, about 176.000 tons of Oil to North Korea exported, as well as more than 23 million tons of grain. If China, its trade with North Korea to freeze, it could North Korea to the brink of collapse and may even collapse. And that is precisely the Problem.

Because there are only a few scenarios, the Beijing government so much Worry, as a collapse of North Korea. And that for two reasons: firstly, would a collapse of North Korea a million times a wave of refugees into the Chinese northeast of trigger – with incalculable economic and social consequences. The other would be a possible reunification of the Korean Peninsula and to identify potential deployment of South Korean and American armed forces right on China’s borders from the point of view of Beijing is a geopolitical nightmare.

Fear of others scenario

Of course, Beijing has no interest in an arms race before the own front door. But viewed through the glasses of the Chinese government, the Situation is more complex: That Pyongyang fully on its nuclear weapons dispensed, is rather unlikely also in the case of economic pressure. But: The armament of North Korea is aimed, anyway, not against China. It aims to the USA, South Korea and Japan, and therefore must above all politicians in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo at night. With a – from a Chinese point of view – geostrategischem nightmare in the case of a Korean reunification, or million Hungerflüchtlingen from North Korea would, however, alone, China is confronted with. As long as this scenario for Beijing, desaströsere is likely to be at the Chinese attitude towards Pyongyang hardly change.

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