Syria War

Peace with a question mark

At the Munich security conference, the representatives of the Syria contact group on a Plan for a cease-fire agreement. Whether it can be implemented, is unclear. Because many practical questions are still open.

Until deep in the night they had met, the representatives of the Syria contact group. But in the end they had a joint decision
brought to pass: The fighting in Syria should be reduced significantly, and in a week into a cease-fire pass. This applies for all groups with the exception of those by the UN security Council as a “terrorist”. These include, among other things, the “Islamic state” (IS) and the Nusra Front. In addition, in the besieged cities still revelers step residents up for the weekend with food and medication supplies. With all of the expected Russian and American military work closely together to vote.

The decision could be the beginning of the end of violence in Syria, not between civilians and fighters is different. Provided at the margins of the Munich security conference, which meets diplomats are able, for the implementation of the decisions. So it might come, after the many setbacks in the last few years is by no means certain. And so showed themselves to US Secretary of state John Kerry also only cautiously optimistic. “The real Test is whether all those Involved their obligations to now also comply with,” he said after the negotiations. Looked like it also the German Vice-Regierungssprecherin Christiane Wirtz. “The words have now but also to deeds,” she said on Friday in Berlin.

Negotiators in the night: the Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his American counterpart John Kerry and the UN Syria Envoy Staffan de Mistura (v. l.)

Conflicting Interests

Because the interests of the negotiating parties are far apart. Added to this are hardly to solve practical problems. It continues to be open to whom the individual States as terrorists define and who isn’t. Similarly, it is unclear how the terrorists of not-extremist resistance fighters or even civilians distinguish. The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an Interview with the “Handelsblatt” the Russian Position on this issue once again in all clarity, are represented. “Show us your maps, shows us where the so-called moderate opposition are,” he demanded there, the Western politicians. “Who claims he is a ‘moderate Oppositionskämpfer’, could in truth not at all moderate.” “But,” he added, “we are ready to negotiate.”

Difficulties are also likely to another circumstance – namely, that the war on several levels. First is a conflict between the rebels and the government of Assad. Since the involvement of the Tehran abkommandierten revolutionary guard corps, but it is also a conflict between the Arabs and the Iranians – though not universally: The Lebanese Hezbollah about fighting on the side of Tehran. It is also a conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. And above all, it is a for spheres of influence and raw materials. Different levels, which overlap, and are hardly separated to divorced. All of this should it to the actors to make it very hard to restrain. So had Saudi Arabia only a few days ago announced,
Ground troops to Syria to send. This should work against the IS and other terrorist groups to fight.

Officially only terrorists in sight: A Russian fighter plane over Syria

“Do you want a permanent war?”

Just warned Russia’s Prime Minister Medvedev in the “Handelsblatt”Interview: “The Americans and our Arab partners must think very carefully: do you Want a permanent war? Do you think they would such a war very quickly win? Such a thing is impossible, especially in the Arab world. There, all fighting against all.” And further: “It could take years or even decades.”

Russia’s biggest concern is safety, said Medvedev. Nevertheless, are likely to be the leading international actors in the conflict alongside Russia and the United States especially Saudi Arabia and Iran – continue to be suspicious peeping: All Parties to suspect each other, their respective sphere of influence to secure to want.

Terrorism as a hope

The question is however, what with such spheres of influence gained would be. The pan-Arab newspaper “Al Sharq al-Awsat from London, points out in a comment suggests that Gebietsgewinne only be a success if the people living there can win. This was not the case, the newspaper writes. “The Russians, Iranians and the Assad Regime, to conquer territories. But as long as people are killed, oppressed, starved, and bombed, the conquerors no real victory. Terrorists may die, but there are new, even more radical terrorists. And given the current Situation, the people have their hope in these new terrorists.”

What this development will lead, warns the newspaper, have already in Iraq. “The country has turned into a sectarian swamp turns. So is it also in Syria to happen, regardless of Assad’s conquests.”

On the run: Syrian civilians are waiting near the border to Turkey on food

Humanitarian Disaster

In addition, the high death toll. For a good two years makes a number of the round. 250,000 people are in the Syrian war has already died. The “Syrian Centre for Policy Research” has this number now has a different opposed, to Date, are already 470.000 people have been killed. Overall, more eleven percent of the Syrian population killed or wounded.

Possibly also this number during the negotiations
played a role. And in terms of the one behind her standing humanitarian catastrophe. But possibly also in terms of the political challenges, the consequences for the West could arise. The Syrians bathed the cynicism of the warring factions, writes the Arab newspaper “Al Hayat”. You just have to escape.”