Stock exchange

Crash rate continues

The Concerns are on the German stock market returns. The courses in Frankfurt and elsewhere in Europe fall nearly by the Bank on a nod. Especially the large banks hits it hard.

After yesterday’s recovery on the German stock market follows the deep case: The Dax is on Thursday, again far below the mark of 9000 points slipped. The German leading index was last 2,96 percent lower at 8750,46 points. So were the winnings from the previous day completely erased. The night before was already the recovery in the US market fizzled because of a speech by U.S. Notenbankchefin Janet Yellen before the house financial services Committee, had the markets not sustainable to calm down. It was confirmed that the Fed does not know what action they should take, according to the experts of the US investment Bank Jefferies.

Bad instructions from the United States

The specifications of Wall Street are now also the markets in Europe, where Worries over the global economy for weeks in a seemingly never-ending decline in the prices lead. In the rest of Europe, the courses are again in decline: The Euro-zone leading index EuroStoxx 50 was by 3.16 percent to 2700,78 points. At the Frankfurt stock market back the badly battered banks into the focus. After the recovery the day before, tears of the General Abwärtssog the industry again. The shares of Deutsche Bank lost on the Dax at the end of more than 5 percent. The day before, had the papers thanks to the prospect of a Anleihenrückkauf of the German market leader in the top is still around 17 per cent increase. The banking sector is currently particularly under fire because, due to the economic weakness, a wave of credit default is feared. The papers of Commerzbank slipped last by more than 5 percent.

Some observers already feel the global financial crisis of 2008 recalls. This is explained not least with the collapse of the Bank shares. At that time the global financial system after the Bankruptcy of U.S. investment Bank Lehman brothers before the collapse. The world economy plunged into a deep recession.

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Why are Bank shares are currently under pressure?

The oil price collapse threatened the existence of the extractive industry, in particular from U.S. mining company on Fracking technology. A consequence, loan losses, this could be holes in Banks ‘ balance sheets tear so the fear. The financial crisis went from barely safe real estate loans (“Subprime”), the packages bundled as securities were sold. But thousands of U.S. debtor, the Hauskredite anyway could not afford, came with the payment of their installments in arrears. Because many of such papers mitverdienten, came a worldwide downward spiral in motion. “The Verbriefungstechnologie had a networking of the Banks ‘balance sheets led to this herdenartig respond” left”, says the Director of the Institute of German economy (IW), Michael Hüther. Today, the Situation is also so different because of loans to oil producer-only around three percent of all Bank loans in the U.S. accounted for, says Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer. The Subprime mortgage loans had a share of approximately 20 percent had. “The one with the Ölpreisverfall associated banking risks are much smaller,” stresses Kramer.

Banks are today better equipped?

Financial institutions have their CCB as a prevention significantly increased as a consequence of the stringent regulation of the financial sector. Admittedly, low interest rates and regulation the income of the institutions under pressure. But: “The banks have considerably in recent years, their balance sheets be shortened, and Kreditbestände dismantled”, says Hüther. Dekabank chief economist Ulrich Kater argues: “This is not a second in 2008, but it’s still the aftermath of the financial crisis of that time, the us track. Currently we have no panic due to the danger of the collapse of the world financial system.”

What is the role of the Central banks?

In the fight against Mini-Inflation and economic weakness floods the large Central banks of the world the markets with cheap money. Critics fear that this could be bubbles in the stock and real estate markets occur. Even after the terrorist attacks in the United States, from 11. September 2001, had Central banks, the Geldschleusen wide open. Many homeowners in the United States took advantage of the low interest rates in order to become ever higher debt and on credit to consume. In the meanwhile, the debts of the households in the United States, however, to an acceptable level has dropped, says Economist Krämer. Could Central banks in a crisis even respond? Critics fear that the monetary authorities with Minizinsen and Wertpapierkäufen their powder is largely used. This refers, however, rather on the intentions of the Central banks to stimulate economic growth, argues hangover: “In the stabilization of the financial system, you still have a lot of possibilities.”

What’s the risk for the economy?

Skip the stock market turmoil, the manufacturing industry is currently unlikely, says the chief Executive of the German chambers of industry and Commerce (DIHK), Martin Wansleben: “the bottom line is to speak to the positive business expectations against a Konjunkturabsturz.” Looks like the Economist Hüther: the exception of China, lack of real economic opportunity for the current market turbulence, “the economic data so far are robust and give little occasion for such correction”.

Why is preparing China?

The growth of the second largest economy in the world is weakening. Investors fear that the mega market could, the breath going out. “The country is facing economically difficult times, also because his company is very highly leveraged,” says Krämer. A good part of the slowdown in demand from the country could be the Western countries but due to a Tightening of domestic demand to compensate for. “Burning it would only, if China is to global financial markets as Lehman in 2008, a Unsicherheitsschock give would. But that is unlikely,” says Krämer. Western banks and investors are still quite isolated financial market, China’s only a little engaged.

There’s also good news?

Helaba-Chefvolkswirtin Gertrud Traud looks in the sharp decline in oil prices Konjunkturspritze for the industrialized countries. Also Traud holds little to Compare with the recent financial crisis. Not every bear market – persistently falling prices in the stock market – go with a recession-hand, “and certainly not with such a crash of the economies, such as in the financial crisis”. It refers to the years 1987, 1998 and 2011 than the German Dax index by an average of 37 percent fell, the economy but not shrank.

hb/zdh (dpa)