German economy defies the crisis

0
476

Company

German economy defies the crisis

The price of Oil falls and falls, the stock markets are on a tailspin, the refugee crisis keeps Europe in suspense, and what makes the German economy? The DIHK has demand and is a bit of a surprise.

Three times per year, asks the German chambers of industry and Commerce in the German Mittelstand business situation and expectations. 27.000 companies have in the last survey between mid-December and mid-January, participated. With an amazing result, because the companies assess their current business situation as good as never before. “We were pleased and surprised by the Confidence and the tatkraftorientierten optimism”, said DIHK-CEO Martin Wansleben, for the survey “the success of the Industrious and Hardworking” documented.

How does this fit in to the General mood of crisis? If you look closely you see some differences in the industries. Generally relieved, although the low Oil price all businesses and provide consumers with additional purchasing power. The weak Euro and the favorable financing situation to do their Part for the company.

Growth Of 1.3%

Especially good for business but above all the trade, the service sector and the construction industry. You will especially benefit from the high Flüchtlingszahlen. Accommodations must be built, in-kind and financial assistance, and boosting consumption. Security companies and social services are also more busy. “The economy contributes about a third of a percentage point of growth”, said DIHK-Economics expert Dirk Schlotböller, which assumes that the economy this year to 1.3 per cent rise.

Martin Wansleben, chief Executive of the German industry and Handelskammertags

That would be less than 2015, and also less than other economy experts at predicting. “Right with full steam running the economy is not,” says Martin Wansleben and the reasons for its skepticism not only with the international political crises, economic weakness in China and commodity-producing countries, but also with the German economic policy.

Investments remain

On the labour market were threatened with new restrictions on temporary work and work contracts, the discussion of an inheritance tax make the middle class very uncomfortable. “Since you ask, it is actually desirable that I, as a family business assets to build or you want to just cashed. Because is missing from my point of view a clear Signal:, creates assets in Germany and is investing strongly again,” says Wansleben.

The editorial recommends

Goods and services “Made in Germany” in demand worldwide. Last year, the exports from Germany to a new record high. In December, however, there was a considerable damper on.
(09.02.2016)

“Refugees take our jobs away”, is one of the prejudices of opponents of the welcome Merkel. The Federal employment Agency sees things differently. Currently be place on the labour market. (08.02.2016)

The economic climate in the Euro area worsens to a survey by the Ifo Institute, in the first quarter. At the same time, reduces the EU Commission its growth forecast for the current year. (04.02.2016)

In fact, companies want their Budgets this year hardly increase. A significant recovery of the investment is thus not expected. This is a bad news, said DIHK-CEO Wansleben, because of the pent-up demand is already very large and Germany live with the fact that it is in better and more competitive jobs, invest.

Crisis, Crisis, Crisis

Is invested but only if the prospects agree. But the good business situation is in the DIHK-survey, a significantly poorer Geschäftserwartung. A Contradiction? “No,” said Wansleben, because for this to have economy simply too much to do with psychology. “If the messages turn on and read the Newspapers, and then they start to get insecure: the term crisis is everywhere. Crisis, crisis, crisis, refugee crisis, which makes a very tame and eventually believes that it really is throughout a crisis, it can’t be otherwise, than that we all have a crisis.”

It is therefore particularly uncertainty, which the DIHK represents. A feeling of uncertainty, the increase is likely given the current Kursabstürze also on the German stock exchanges. In this point, the DIHK is, however, clear effort. You could by the course of German stock index Dax is not so easy on the course of the economy close.

Banks Worry

Much more thoughts to you about the problems in the banking sector. No economy was so dependent on it, that banks have sufficient loan type, as the German economy, with its many medium-sized companies and family businesses. Not only the Deutsche Bank prepare as Worry. The instabilities in the financial sector would now become far beyond individual cases, beyond that one must be a nationwide phenomenon speak.