North Korea

Frank: “Further nuclear tests in North Korea will follow”

Nuclear test Langstreckenraketentest, hochgefahrener Plutoniumreaktor. Almost every week ensures that North Korea is currently making the headlines. North Korea expert Rüdiger Frank explains how the latest developments will be assessed.

Deutsche Welle: three great provocations from North Korea since the beginning of the year: Only the fourth atomic bomb test, last weekend, a new Langstreckenraketentest, and yesterday, the message that North Korea is apparently a Plutoniumreaktor has rebooted. How is this latest Eskalationsserie to evaluate?

Rüdiger Frank: The occurrence is in fact interesting, as it has since the big escalation of the year 2013 so far, surprisingly was quiet. The Thesis that North Korea is, so to speak, everything “in a dish-washing” wanted to do, and hopes that it only to a single reaction (instead of three) comes, I think, is quite daring. I argue, instead, for a domestic-political explanation, the obvious and more convincing.

üdiger Frank is Professor of East Asian Sciences at the University of Vienna

Held in may for the first time since after 36 years, a party Congress took place. This is an event whose importance we cannot over-emphasize. Kim Jong Un has some days ago already harsh criticism of Parteikadern practiced, the privilege search, abuse their Power and bureaucratic action. There’s something together. The leader intends to make use of such symbolic measures, such as nuclear and missile test could inward strength to demonstrate and perhaps also external pressure, to provoke, which is then used, to the faithful in the face of the external threat still close to in droves.

Reforms – more Openness, more market – are only at maximum domestic strength is conceivable. You could at the Congress will be decided. This requires the leader, the Image of a successful and resolutely acting man. What I have in the last year in North Korea have seen, suggests that the pressure for reform is increasing.

South Korea’s intelligence service shortly after the Langstreckenraketentest at the weekend reported that North Korea may be a further nuclear test plans. To what extent do you expect in the coming weeks or months with further provocations?

I like the concept of provocation not, because he implies that the meaning and purpose of the Tests is. Rather, North Korea’s leadership decided that nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent to build, and is pursuing this path consistently. This means even more Tests. The United States and the former Soviet Union had, in turn, each of many hundreds of Tests needed, to the desired Level. North Korea is only the beginning.

There will be a fifth and even a sixth nuclear test to give, and then, if the North Korea technically is considered appropriate. The same applies for missile tests and for nuclear power plants, which is only fair to admit, that this is also a high commercial use potential.

North Korea hoped for by the development of nuclear weapons a better position to negotiate with the international community, and direct discussions with the United States, as it is now, in the case of Iran. How realistic is this goal?

North Korea wants to, in fact, with the world cooperate, but on equal terms and not exclusively to the terms and conditions of the West. Pyongyang is confident that the West will not, especially with a view on the experience of countries such as Iraq and Libya. The nuclear program is also a hedge.

It is for Western politicians in the face of the negative North Korea image by the own voters becoming increasingly difficult, even with Pyongyang to talk about, because we are in discussions already as a large concession map. However, this is a very questionable Position. The unfortunate and for me personally, very frustrating projection of the North Korean Minister of foreign Affairs, by the world economic forum in Davos, Switzerland is just one example. Here is a Dilemma. We need to talk, but we can’t because we have our own ideological positions, Voraussetzungsketten and “Red lines” stand in the way.

Only North Korea can change and is at one point a really good deal to the West. This is not the complete abandonment of the nuclear program, but taking decisive steps to non-proliferation, the test ban, a Freeze of the program and to inspections. I have signals that Pyongyang, under certain circumstances, be acceptable.

On 7. February was tested in North Korea for the umpteenth Time, a long-range rocket

The outrage of the international community was also this Time, great – but only verbally. It was still amselben day of a special session of the UN security Council. But from a concrete joint action against Pyongyang is a far cry. The extent to which paralyze the respective interests of the United States, South Korea, Japan and China, an effective policy toward North Korea?

North Korea finds itself increasingly in a Situation such as you already in the 1950s had experienced. The rivalry between the great powers – at that time China and the Soviet Union – it offers great possibilities of manoeuvring. So something suggests to start now, especially since the Situation through the participation of South Korea, Japan and Russia, with all its territorial and historical conflicts even more complex and, therefore, for North Korea is still more advantageous.

China is upset that the United States North Korea as an excuse to take a Raketenabwehrschirm almost to the Chinese border building. Also the annual South Korean-American military manoeuvres, see Yes not only to the border of North Korea, but de facto also on the border to China instead.

Which Signal comes from the line of foreign countries in North Korea? We can do what we want, and what happened to us still nothing?

Now, by “nothing” you can’t really talk, because the country suffers as well under the sanctions. However, it is true, there are few sanctions left. Fatal is, that the failure of our non-military means of exerting pressure far beyond North Korea to have a ripple effect. Pyongyang leads the international community, the toothlessness of international agreements and claims that, if there are no strong interdependencies that are barely enforceable. This insight is not new, only the Problem is in the case of North Korea is particularly extreme and is clearly visible.

North Korea’s Dictator Kim Jong Un

And Vice versa: when is the level full? At what point might the countries of their respective interests behind the Whole reset?

The Problem is that North Korea is not just the big picture. It’s not about North Korea. It is about the principle, to ideologies, and to the supremacy in East Asia or in the world. The measure has long been full, only the non-military options of the West in principle exhausted. Only China still remain some possibilities. But Beijing will avoid a nuclear power on its own border, targeted to destabilize or an extension of the American sphere of influence, on the way to a Korean reunification to risk.

As long as North Korea does not attacks first – which I highly unlikely think – is a military strike by the U.S. against North Korea because of the proximity to China is practically impossible, at least under the current President.

Rüdiger Frank is Professor of East Asian studies at the University of Vienna. He also works as an adjunct Professor at South Korea’s Korea University, and the University of North Korean Studies (Kyungnam University) in Seoul. In 2014 published his book: “North Korea. Interiors of a totalitarian state.”

The Interview was conducted by Esther fields.